The daily number of deaths in Russia, the sum of the indicators for 2011–2019 (blue line) and the moving average LOWESS for non-holidays, extrapolated to holidays (red line). Note: The vertical dashed lines indicate the first days of the months, green arrows indicate the main holidays, sequentially: November 4; January 1, 7, 14 and 19; February 23; March 8; May 1 and 9; June 12. Source: authors’ calculations based on modelling and Rosstat data.