Research Article |
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Corresponding author: Elaheh Khezri ( ek517@sussex.ac.uk ) Corresponding author: Alexander Tatarko ( tatarko@yandex.ru ) © 2024 Elaheh Khezri, Alexander Tatarko.
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Citation:
Khezri E, Tatarko A (2024) Institutional Trust and Economic Coping Strategies in Response to Sanctions: The Case of Russia and Iran. Population and Economics 8(3): 17-45. https://doi.org/10.3897/popecon.8.e107719
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Sanctions have become an established feature of the economic landscape in Russia and Iran and may lead to economic insecurity and distrust of political bodies among citizens. However, few studies have investigated the way individuals adapt to these sanctions and whether their coping strategies are linked to their trust in institutions. To address this gap, we conducted a comparative study between Russians and Iranians, examining their economic coping strategies (ECS), including traditional ways of storing value, modern investments, cost-cutting measures, extra work, and resorting to social and material resources in response to sanctions and their relationship with institutional trust. Utilizing a cross-sectional research design, we administered surveys and obtained sample sizes of 364 and 311 in Russia and Iran, respectively. Our findings revealed that Russians exhibit higher institutional trust and lower levels of employing ECS compared to Iranians. Furthermore, we observed that lower institutional trust is associated with a greater overall use of ECS among Russians but not Iranians. When analyzing each coping strategy individually, we found that Russians with lower institutional trust tend to rely more on extra work, cost-cutting measures, and social and material resources, while in Iran, we observed this relationship for cost-cutting measures and modern investments. We concluded that in Russia, the financial insecurity induced by sanctions may have impacted institutional trust of those low-income individuals that were pressed to use certain strategies, while in Iran, the link between cutting expenses, modern investments, and institutional trust may be better explained by reduced life satisfaction and cultural factors. Given the role of institutional trust in well-being, it is crucial to protect at-risk segments of society from the adverse effects of financial challenges on their institutional trust.
economic sanctions, economic behavior, cross-cultural economic coping strategies, institutional trust, sanctions in Russia, sanctions in Iran
With the increasing complexity of the modern world, global conflicts are also becoming progressively more complicated. Economic sanctions have emerged as a modern means of warfare between countries and are increasingly used as a policy instrument and a form of collective punishment in contemporary global conflicts. Sanctions are linked to the economic insecurity experienced by citizens, particularly vulnerable groups such as youth and low-income households (
Despite this necessity, only a limited number of studies have explored the consequences of sanctions for ordinary citizens. For instance, in the case of Venezuela, one study demonstrated that US sanctions led to reduced calorie intake and increased mortality across various age groups (
Furthermore, while existing research has examined the cross-national impact of sanctions at the macro-level, focusing on consequences for the economy and policy (e.g.,
Moreover, there are typological similarities and differences between Russia and Iran that justify cross-cultural studies of sanctions. Firstly, when considering all sanctioned countries, Russia and Iran are relatively closer in terms of typological distance. For example, compared to Russia and Iran, China faces smaller sanction packages, and North Korea possesses markedly different political, societal, and economic systems (
From a cultural perspective, Russia and Iran share some commonalities while also having distinct characteristics. Both cultures highly endorse security, benevolence, and universalism, while placing less emphasis on stimulation and hedonism values (
To address the aforementioned gaps, the present research focuses on exploring how individuals cope with economic challenges posed by sanctions, which factors are associated with their preference for certain economic coping strategies, and how universal these factors may be. Therefore, in this paper, we have attempted – from a politically neutral perspective – to address these questions by comparing Russians and Iranians in terms of their economic coping strategies and how these strategies relate to their sociodemographic characteristics and levels of institutional trust.
Since the onset of its special military operation in Ukraine in early 2022, Russia has faced an extensive array of sanctions, making it the most heavily sanctioned country globally, with more than 10,000 sanctions imposed as of February the following year (Sanctions against… 2023). The immediate consequences of these economic sanctions on Russia remain somewhat unclear. While economists suggest that the Russian economy has suffered to some extent due to the sanctions, approximately 80% of the Russian population claims that their lives have not been affected, and they do not perceive any negative consequences stemming from these sanctions (How Russians… 2023). Surveys also indicate an increased level of institutional trust during 2022 and 2023 (Levada Center 2022–2023).
Iran has a long history of sanctions, dating back 70 years to the initial sanctions imposed by Great Britain in response to the nationalization of the Iranian oil industry during the Pahlavi regime. The current sanctions, however, began following the Iranian revolution in 1979 and the subsequent US embassy hostage crisis. Over the past four decades, Iran has faced numerous rounds of sanctions, primarily imposed by the US, the European Union, and the UN Security Council, with their intensity increasing over time. In 2016, following the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement between Iran and the UN Security Council members, some sanctions were lifted. However, the unilateral withdrawal of the US from the JCPOA in 2018 led to the reinstatement of previous sanctions and the imposition of new ones (
These sanctions have had wide-ranging impacts on both Iran’s broader economy and the lives of its citizens. Scholars note that sanctions have contributed to the weakening of Iran’s civil society (
Overall, the abrupt expansion of sanctions in Russia and the long-standing exposure of Iran to sanctions may have significant implications for the comparison of economic coping strategies and institutional trust among Russians and Iranians. Accordingly, it is plausible to suggest that the utilization of economic coping strategies in response to sanctions may be more prevalent in Iran, while institutional trust may be higher in Russia.
Current research on behavioral responses to economic sanctions or economic crises is relatively limited. Social psychology research has made attempts to categorize coping strategies, but these are often general and not tailored specifically to economic behavior. For instance, the COPE methodology (
Family coping strategies also play a significant role in resource management and coping with stress. McCubbin et al. (1991) identify internal and external family coping strategies. Internal strategies relate to how family members internally handle difficulties among themselves and include passive appraisal (accepting difficulties and minimizing reactivity) and reframing (redefining challenging situations). External coping strategies pertain to how families interact with the social environment and utilize external resources to cope with problems. This category encompasses actively seeking and accepting help from family members, acquiring social support (seeking resources within the community and assistance from others), and seeking spiritual support (
When examining strategies of economic behavior specifically within the context of sanctions policy, the few available studies have mentioned reactive and proactive practices (How Russians… 2023). Reactive practices include reducing various activities and cutting down on purchases of goods and services, while proactive practices involve actively seeking opportunities to enhance one’s financial situation. However, further research is required to gain a more specific understanding of economic coping strategies within the context of sanctions.
In our study, we have identified a comprehensive set of strategies (17 in total; refer to Table
Institutional trust may be defined as people’s positive expectations regarding the competence, reliability, and goodwill of authorities responsible for performing institutional duties on their behalf (Liang & Ma 2021). Trust in the overall political system of society also encompasses confidence in its stability and effectiveness (
Research on institutional trust is highly relevant to economic behaviors under sanctions. Numerous studies demonstrate that institutional trust, along with generalized trust, are key socio-psychological factors contributing to economic progress and democratic stability (
This assumption aligns with one of the primary objectives of economic sanctions, which is to change a country’s political trajectory by undermining its social capital, particularly institutional trust, through impacting income and living standards. Specifically, sanctions aim to place the sanctioned governments in a position where they must choose between changing their policies or risk being voted out of power or overthrown by the citizens due to the erosion of institutional trust (
Accordingly, using large scale national data on income and expenditure,
Culture shapes the beliefs, behaviors, values, and social dynamics of societies across the globe. Amidst the diversity of cultures worldwide, Russian and Iranian cultures emerge as distinctive entities, each characterized by unique historical, cultural, religious, and ethnic factors. In this context, we offer a concise overview of Russian and Iranian cultures with respect to institutional and in-group collectivism, basic human values, and uncertainty avoidance. We have chosen these dimensions because of their relevance to our subsequent discussion of economic coping strategies and institutional trust.
Institutional and in-group collectivism represent two cultural dimensions explored by the GLOBE study of 62 societies (
Both Russia and Iran exhibit above-average levels of in-group collectivism (
Conversely, institutional collectivism is lower than in-group collectivism in both countries. Nevertheless, Russia demonstrates higher levels of institutional collectivism compared to the average of the examined countries. In contrast, Iran displays lower-than-average levels of institutional collectivism. Low institutional collectivism is associated with reduced societal loyalty and cohesion, as well as higher prioritization of individual interests over collective interests (
Individuals’ behaviors, including their economic and political behaviors, are closely intertwined with their basic human values (
Valuing security is associated with lower emotional and behavioral preference for wastefulness in economic behavior, while hedonism is linked to a higher tolerance for wastefulness (
Uncertainty avoidance, one of the cultural dimensions in the Hofstede model, might also be associated with preferred coping strategies in these countries. This dimension pertains to the extent to which individuals in a society tolerate uncertainty and the unknown. Societies with high uncertainty avoidance tend to implement extensive regulations and rules to minimize and control unpredictable situations, while those with low uncertainty avoidance are more comfortable in unstructured and unpredictable environments (
Overall, Russian and Iranian cultures, while sharing some similarities such as high in-group collectivism and basic values, also exhibit differences in terms of institutional collectivism, the strength of these values, and uncertainty avoidance. These cultural nuances may significantly influence individuals’ coping strategies in response to economic challenges, including sanctions, and their trust in institutions. Understanding these cultural distinctions is crucial for a comprehensive analysis of economic coping strategies and institutional trust in Russia and Iran, providing insight into the interplay between culture and behavior in diverse socio-economic contexts.
Based on the theoretical considerations outlined earlier, this study aims to explore potential differences between Russians and Iranians in their adoption of economic coping strategies and their levels of institutional trust. Furthermore, it attempts to investigate the relationship between institutional trust and economic coping strategies.
Consequently, the first hypothesis posits that Iranians are more inclined to utilize economic coping strategies compared to Russians, reflecting a country-level variation in coping behaviors in response to sanctions. This hypothesis is primarily rooted in the longer exposure of Iran to sanctions compared to Russia, which may have provided the Iranian population with more experience in using economic coping strategies.
The second hypothesis suggests that Russians would report higher levels of institutional trust in comparison to Iranians. This higher level of trust may be attributed to various factors, such as the relatively shorter duration of sanctions on Russia compared to Iran and the differing levels of institutional collectivism in these countries (
The third hypothesis proposes that institutional trust would be correlated with economic coping strategies in both countries. However, the study does not make assumptions regarding the direction of these relationships and how they might differ between Russia and Iran. Accordingly, two research questions are formulated:
This study employed a cross-sectional research design and conducted surveys to collect data for analysis.
In May 2022, we administered the Russian survey. The sample included 384 participants (53.9% female, 46.1% male) aged from 18 to 54 (M – 37, SD = 9.5), with the majority (78.1%) reporting being employed. Regarding education levels, the distribution was as follows: basic general education (2.1%), completed secondary education (5.5%), primary vocational education (3.6%), secondary vocational education (19.3%), incomplete higher education (8.1%), completed higher education (60.2%), and academic degrees such as PhD or Doctor of Science (1.3%). Participants also exhibited a diverse range of income levels, with an average income of 4.44 (SD – 1.63) and acceptable skewness and kurtosis values (Skewness – 0.26, Kurtosis – 0.12).
We administered the Iranian survey in June 2022 and the sample were 311 participants (50.3% female, 49.7% male) aged from 18 to 61 (M – 33, SD = 9.1), with 61.2% being employed. In terms of education levels, the breakdown was as follows: elementary school (0.6%), middle school (1.9%), completed high school (20.1%), associate’s, bachelor’s, or master’s degree (69.9%), and PhD (7.4%). Income levels exhibited a normal distribution, with an average income of 2.15 (SD – 0.89) and acceptable skewness and kurtosis values (Skewness – 0.44, Kurtosis – -0.49).
In Iran, a different scale was used to assess income. The question was asked: Which of the given statements most accurately describes the income level of your family at present? And the following answers were offered: 1. We live on this income without experiencing financial difficulties 2. This income is enough for us in principle 3. It is quite difficult to live on this income 4. It is very difficult to live on this income.
The fact that the scales for assessing income in Iran and Russia were different did not matter to us as we did not compare the income of respondents in both samples. Income indicators were used only as control variables.
The measures, administered in both Russian and Persian, are outlined as follows:
Institutional Trust. We extracted statements of institutional trust from the European Social Survey (European Social Survey 2020). The items asked participants to rate their level of trust in various government institutions (e.g., «Legislative authorities,» «President of the country,» «Police,» «Politicians overall and political parties») on a Likert-type six-point scale (1 = absolutely don’t trust, 6 = absolutely trust). The Russian version comprised 8 items and demonstrated a high level of internal consistency with a Cronbach’s alpha of 0.95 in the present study. The Persian version consisted of 10 items, with a Cronbach’s alpha of 0.92. The difference between the Russian and the Persian survey was that in the latter, we added one item to assess trust in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (Sepah) due to its significant influence in Iran’s politics. Additionally, we separated the items of politicians overall and political parties in the Persian survey.
Economic Coping Strategies (ECS). We developed an instrument to measure economic coping strategies used by individuals to deal with the financial consequences of sanctions. To identify possible strategies in reaction to lowered living standards, we reviewed internet forums, expert interviews, and existing scales that measure similar parameters (with particular attention to questions from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey;
Family Coping Strategies. We employed the Family Crisis Oriented Personal Evaluation Scale (F-COPES; McCubbin et al. 1991) to assess familial behavioral and problem-solving strategies for coping with challenging situations. F-COPES consists of 30 items (e.g., «When we face problems or difficulties in our family, we respond by sharing our difficulties with relatives») and employs a Likert’s five-point scale (5 = strongly agree, 1 = strongly disagree) for participant responses. The Russian version of F-COPES, adapted for use in Russia (
Sociodemographic Variables. We collected data on gender, age, education, income level, and employment status using corresponding questions in both samples.
For the Russian portion of the study, we collected data through the Anketolog.ru platform. As an incentive for participation, we provided compensation of 100 rubles per respondent. To determine the appropriate sample size, we took into consideration the population of the Russian Federation as of January 1, 2021 (146,171,015 people) and a confidence interval level of 95%. Based on these parameters, we calculated the optimal sample size to be 384 individuals
We used the same calculator to determine the sample size for Iran, which had a population of approximately 87,920,000 in 2021. To collect data from Iranians, we employed a combination of voluntary response sampling and snowball sampling. We published a call for voluntary participation on an Iranian Telegram channel called “Farsi Tweets,” which has around 500,000 subscribers. This channel is dedicated to republishing viral Iranian tweets and has no specific topic or orientation. We also sent the same call to our family and friends, encouraging them to share it with their acquaintances. The content of the call provided a vague description of the study (“We are collecting data for comparing economic behaviors of Iranians with Russians”), emphasized the anonymity and confidentiality of the data, and included a link to the survey. After collecting sufficient data, we screened the database and excluded three cases of respondents under 18 years old.
We conducted statistical analyses using R and SPSS. Initially, we pre-processed the data to account for outliers and missing values. Subsequently, we calculated Cronbach’s alpha for the scales. We then performed multigroup confirmatory factor analysis (MGCFA) to establish configural, metric, and scalar invariance of the ECS scale in both the Russian and Iranian samples. To further assess the discriminant and convergent validity of the factors, we examined Spearman correlations between the latent factors of this scale, the factors of F-COPES, and income. In the subsequent stage, we investigated Spearman coefficients between variables of interest and demographics to explore the interrelationships.
To test the hypotheses, we conducted Mann-Whitney U tests to evaluate the significance of differences for all variables between Russia and Iran. Then, we employed multivariate regression to assess whether institutional trust is associated with ECS while controlling for demographics. We applied this model to both samples.
For all the variables of interest, the amount of missing data was less than 5%, which can be considered negligible. We have reported the results for the invariance of the ECS scale, correlations, descriptive comparisons, and multivariate regressions.
The results of the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) for the ECS scale, including the loadings of corresponding items, can be found in Appendix A. To establish configural, metric, and scalar invariance of the ECS scale, we conducted multigroup confirmatory factor analysis (MGCFA), assuming five latent factors: traditional ways of storing value (gold, bank deposits, real estate), investing in modern means of storing value (stocks and cryptocurrency), seeking extra work, cost-cutting measures, and resorting to social and material resources, which included seeking help and selling property. Due to the violation of the assumption of normal distribution in our data, we employed the diagonally weighted least squares estimator, following the recommendations of
The results of MGCFA for configural, metric, and scalar invariance are presented in Table
The relationships between all variables of interest and demographic variables are detailed in Table
Table
Spearman correlations between variables (first row: Russia, second row: Iran)
| Variables | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 1. Income | ||||||||||
| 2. Gender | 0.07 | |||||||||
| 0.01 | ||||||||||
| 3. Age | -0.03 | 0.04 | ||||||||
| -0.10 | 0.02 | |||||||||
| 4. Education | 0.18** | -0.08 | 0.12* | |||||||
| 0.07 | 0.04 | -0.00 | ||||||||
| 5. Employment | -0.29** | -.19** | -0.14** | -0.20** | ||||||
| 0.00 | -0.42** | 0.26** | 0.15** | |||||||
| 6. Traditional stores of value | 0.05 | 0.19** | -.001 | 0.02 | -0.11* | |||||
| 0.19** | -0.07 | -0.05 | 0.14* | 0.09 | ||||||
| 7. Modern investments | 0.06 | 0.24** | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.10* | 0.50** | ||||
| 0.08 | -0.23** | -0.01 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.36** | |||||
| 8. Extra work | -0.12* | 0.07 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.05 | 0.27** | 0.34** | |||
| -0.12* | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.01 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.24** | ||||
| 9. Cost-cutting measures | -0.24** | -0.00 | 0.04 | 0.10* | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.35** | ||
| -0.25** | 0.00 | 0.11* | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.22** | |||
| 10. Social/material resorts | -0.21** | 0.10* | -0.05 | -0.03 | 0.10 | 0.33** | 0.29** | 0.40** | 0.30** | |
| -0.27** | -0.08 | 0.02 | -0.07 | 0.12* | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.19** | 0.22** | ||
| 11. Institutional trust | -0.03 | -0.08 | 0.14** | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.05- | -0.14** | -0.18** | -0.16** |
| 0.023 | -0.03 | 0.06 | -0.19** | -0.13* | -0.11* | 0.12* | -0.06 | -0.15** | -0.04 |
| Variable | Mdn | IQR | z | Cohen’s d | ||
| Russia | Iran | Russia | Iran | |||
| Institutional trust | 3.75 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.30 | 12** | 0.97 |
| Traditional stores of value | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.75 | 1.00 | -4.53*** | 0.32 |
| Modern investments | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.66 | 1.33 | -3.07** | 0.20 |
| Extra work | 2.33 | 2.66 | 1.67 | 2 | -3.03** | 0.23 |
| Cost-cutting measures | 3.00 | 4.50 | 2.50 | 1.50 | -8.50*** | 0.67 |
| Social/material resorts | 1.20 | 1.80 | 0.80 | 1.60 | -4.69** | 0.34 |
For both countries, we conducted multivariate regression analyses to examine the relationships between institutional trust and ECS while controlling for income, education, gender, and employment. As the inclusion of age did not significantly alter the results, we removed it from the model in the interest of parsimony. We initially entered the control variables into the regression. Pillai’s trace test indicated that, for both countries, significant differences existed in the overall use of economic coping strategies among different income levels, education levels, and between genders, while no significant differences were observed between employed and unemployed individuals. The results for Russia were as follows: income, F (5, 375) – 7.63, p < 0.001; education, F (5, 375) – 2.28, p = 0.04; gender, F (5, 375) – 5.00, p < 0.001; employment, F (5, 375) – 0.78, p = 0.55. In Iran, the results were as follows: income, F (5, 298) – 11.8, p < 0.001; education, F (5, 298) – 2.70, p = 0.02; gender, F (5, 298) = 3.32, p = 0.006; employment, F (5, 298) – 0.96, p = 0.43.
To further explore these differences, we examined the relationships between control variables and each factor of ECS in a multivariate regression analysis. Among Russians, income was a significant negative predictor of cost-cutting (β – -0.28, t (379) – -5.10, p < 0.001), seeking extra work (β – -0.13, t (379) – -2.71, p = 0.02), and resorting to social/material resources (β – -0.21, t (379) – -3.82, p < 0.001). For Iranians, in contrast to Russians, income significantly and positively predicted traditional ways of storing value (β – 0.37, t (302) = 3.42, p < 0.001), while, similar to Russians but to a greater extent, it negatively correlated with cost-cutting (β – -0.51, t (302) – -4.69, p < 0.001), seeking extra work (β – -0.23, t (302) = -2.14, p = 0.03), and resorting to social/material resources (β – -0.54, t (302) – -4.98, p < 0.001). Among Russians, education was a significant positive predictor of cost-cutting (β = 0.12, t (379) = 2.55, p = 0.01) but was unrelated to other ECS factors. Education among Iranians, although leading to differences in overall economic coping strategies, was only a significant contributor to traditional ways of storing value (β – 0.25, t (302) = 2.23, p = 0.02), and unlike Russia, it had no relationship with cost-cutting. Regarding gender, in Russia, being female was negatively associated with traditional ways of storing value (β = -0.18, t (379) = -3.66, p < 0.001), modern investments (β – -0.23, t (379) – -4.67, p < 0.001), and resorting to social/material resources (β – -0.18, t (379) – -3.65, p < 0.001). In Iran, being female had no significant relationship with traditional stores of value and resorting to social/material resources, but, similar to Russia and to a greater extent, it was negatively associated with modern investments (β – -0.23, t (302) – -3.84, p < 0.001). Employment showed no significant relationship with any of the economic coping strategies in either country.
In the subsequent step, we introduced institutional trust into the multivariate regression model to assess its predictive power for ECS, while still controlling for income, education, gender, and employment. We then conducted Pillai’s trace tests to evaluate whether differences in overall ECS existed at various levels of institutional trust. The results indicated that in Russia, institutional trust was associated with differences in overall ECS, F (5, 374) – 4.38, p < 0.001. However, in Iran, such a relationship was not observed, F (5, 292) – 2.06, p = 0.06.
To delve deeper into these differences, we explored the relationships between institutional trust and each factor of ECS while including the control variables in the multivariate regression. The results are summarized in Table
Multivariate regression of institutional trust on economic coping strategies (first row: Russia, second row: Iran)
| Variables | Traditional stores of value | Modern investments | Extra work | Cost-cutting measures | Social/material resorts | |||||
| β | SE | β | SE | β | SE | β | SE | β | SE | |
| Income | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 | -0.13* | 0.05 | -0.29*** | 0.05 | -0.21*** | 0.05 |
| 0.40*** | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.11 | -0.25* | 0.11 | -0.47*** | 0.11 | -0.55*** | 0.11 | |
| Education | 0.02 | 0.04 | -0.06 | 0.04 | -0.02 | 0.04 | 0.10* | 0.04 | -0.02 | 0.04 |
| 0.21 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.11 | -0.20 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.11 | -0.20 | 0.11 | |
| Gendera | -0.19*** | 0.05 | -0.23*** | 0.05 | -0.06 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 | -0.17*** | 0.05 |
| -0.07 | 0.06 | -0.25*** | 0.06 | -0.10 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.06 | -0.04 | 0.06 | |
| Employmentb | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.05 | -0.01 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.05 | -0.03 | 0.05 |
| 0.03 | 0.06 | -0.03 | 0.06 | -0.00 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.06 | |
| Institutional trust | 0.00 | 0.05 | -0.00 | 0.05 | -0.13** | 0.05 | -0.19*** | 0.04 | -0.11* | 0.04 |
| -0.09 | 0.05 | -0.13* | 0.05 | -0.07 | 0.05 | -0.12* | 0.05 | -0.04 | 0.05 | |
| ΔR2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 | |||||
| 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | ||||||
Significant relationships between institutional trust, control variables, and ECS. Source: compiled by the authors. Note: Only significant relationships in the final predictor model are presented. Standardized coefficients for Russia are shown in regular type, and for Iran in italics (Russia/Iran).
In summary, these analyses revealed significant differences between Russians and Iranians in terms of institutional trust levels and their utilization of economic coping strategies, even when accounting for demographic factors. As hypothesized, Russians displayed higher levels of institutional trust and lower reliance on economic coping strategies compared to Iranians. Furthermore, we found partial evidence for the negative association between institutional trust and certain factors of economic coping strategies. Specifically, Russians with lower levels of institutional trust tended to rely more on seeking extra work, cost-cutting, and resorting to social and material resources to cope with sanctions. Iranians, on the other hand, were similar to Russians in terms of the association between lower institutional trust and increased cost-cutting, but unlike Russia, lower institutional trust in Iran was not associated with seeking extra work or using social/material resources, but instead correlated with more modern investments.
As for sociodemographic variables, in Russia, income was negatively associated with cost-cutting and resorting to social/material resources. Similar relationships existed in Iran, but income also positively predicted traditional ways of storing value in this country. Education was associated with increased cost-cutting in Russia but had no relationship with other economic coping strategies in either Russia or Iran. Russian women were less likely to utilize traditional stores of value, modern investments, and social/material resources. Iranian women were also less likely to engage in modern investments. Employment showed no significant association with any of the economic coping strategies in either country.
Throughout this study, we have developed an instrument for measuring individuals’ economic coping strategies in response to economic sanctions. We conducted a comparative analysis between Russians and Iranians, examining how they adapt these coping strategies and their levels of institutional trust. Additionally, we explored the role of institutional trust and sociodemographic factors in the utilization of various economic coping strategies and investigated how these relationships vary between Russia and Iran.
Regarding the ECS scale, our objective was to determine its reliability in measuring economic coping strategies in both Russia and Iran, whether the measured strategies align with our theoretical categorization, and if the results are comparable between the two countries. This study provided evidence supporting the reliability of this instrument in both Russia and Iran, suggesting that the items tap into the economic coping strategies of individuals. Furthermore, the validity of our proposed factor structure in both Russia and Iran indicated that economic coping strategies can be categorized into the following groups:
This research also established the invariance of the ECS scale across Russia and Iran, suggesting that it can be used in future cross-cultural studies for comparing economic coping strategies between these two countries. However, as the scale’s internal consistency was notably lower in Iran compared to Russia, we suggest some caution with this regard. This disparity may imply that the scale might have missed certain important coping strategies in Iran. For example, the instrument did not capture the reliance on bank loans, a strategy frequently used by Iranians (
In terms of comparing Russia and Iran in their economic coping strategies, our findings align with our hypothesis, indicating that Iranians employ all of these strategies more frequently than Russians do. The most significant difference was observed in the category of cost-cutting, although it is important to approach the effect sizes for seeking additional work and modern investments with caution. Several factors may explain this difference.
Firstly, this difference may be explained by the longer exposure of Iran to sanctions, which has exhausted its economy (
Furthermore, Russians may utilize these strategies to a lesser extent due to measures taken by the Bank of Russia to prevent financial instability (
Regarding institutional trust, our findings indicate that Russians exhibit higher levels of institutional trust compared to Iranians, confirming our hypothesis. We may explain these results from various perspectives. From a cultural standpoint, the differences align with higher levels of institutional collectivism (
To provide a more comprehensive explanation, the broader political and historical factors should also be considered. In the case of Russia, despite having some of the lowest institutional trust levels globally (
Overall, we may conclude from these remarks that institutional trust in response to economic threats may vary across cultures. Future studies that consider other sanctioned countries are essential to further verify our observations. Moreover, if the sanctions in Russia were to continue, the trajectory of institutional trust in this country may help clarify these findings.
To further explore the potential interaction between economic sanctions and institutional trust, we examined and compared the relationship between institutional trust and economic coping strategies in both Russia and Iran. Given that it is challenging to directly investigate the causal pathways between economic sanctions and institutional trust, we reasoned that if sanctions do indeed influence institutional trust, this impact would reflect in the relationship between economic coping strategies in response to sanctions and levels of institutional trust.
In the case of Russia, our analysis revealed that, after controlling for socio-demographic factors, individuals with overall higher utilization of economic coping strategies are more likely to have lower institutional trust. This finding suggests that those with higher levels of using economic coping strategies may be experiencing more significant financial impacts due to sanctions, and their trust in government and institutions has been reduced as a result of this financial insecurity. This interpretation aligns with existing studies indicating that downward social mobility is associated with political distrust and a tendency to «blame the system» (
Another perspective is that individuals with lower institutional trust prior to the onset of sanctions may be more inclined to utilize economic coping strategies because they lack trust in the government’s ability to protect them. This distrust may prompt them to rely more on individual coping strategies.
We cannot determine with certainty which interpretation is more accurate. However, a clarifying point may be that the relationship between institutional trust and ECS in Russia was specially observed for people with higher levels of seeking extra work, cost-cutting measures, and resorting to social and material resources – strongest in cutting expenses. Unlike traditional ways of storing value and modern investments, which require financial capital, these strategies are more accessible to individuals with lower incomes. This assumption is supported by the negative relationship between income and these strategies in our sample. Low income puts people at increased risk of moving into poverty under sanctions (
These results also align with the cultural values in Russian society. Individuals who prioritize security may perceive reduced institutional trust as a threat to both personal and societal stability, leading them to seek alternative means to compensate for this perceived instability. Security is associated with a preference for economic development and reduced wastefulness in Russian culture (
Additionally, the high uncertainty avoidance in Russian culture may drive individuals with low institutional trust to opt for more secure, predictable, and controllable economic coping strategies. Cutting costs, extra work, and seeking help from relatives and organizations offer a sense of risk mitigation and individual control. In contrast, strategies involving investments in cryptocurrency, stocks, and gold are more susceptible to external influences and carry greater financial volatility (
We observed different patterns between institutional trust and economic coping strategies in Iran. There was no relationship between overall utilization of economic coping strategies and institutional trust, suggesting that Iranians’ trust in institutions may not be linked to potential financial impacts of sanctions on their lives.
This lack of connection may be explained by the political climate of Iran. As mentioned earlier, political distrust in Iran has roots in historical power dynamics between the state and society (
However, when we examined each specific economic coping strategies individually, the results indicated that individuals who engaged in more cost-cutting and had greater modern investments tended to have lower levels of institutional trust. These relationships may have emerged from pathways unrelated to economic insecurity brought by sanctions, especially considering the lack of an overall relationship between trust and economic coping strategies in Iran. We can make various arguments regarding each strategy.
For cost-cutting, while the relationship was similar to our observations in Russia, the reason for its occurrence may differ in Iran and may not be related to low income. We make this assumption because extra work and resorting to social/material resources had no relationship with institutional trust in Iran, despite their significant link with low income (using social/material resources was more closely tied to income compared to cost-cutting). Our explanation is that in the case of Iran, cutting expenses is linked to lower institutional trust through reduced life satisfaction. To elaborate, cutting expenses in our study concerned minimizing entertainment, vacation, and purchases of items like food and clothing, all of which are linked to life satisfaction (
Furthermore, the presence of a connection between modern investments and reduced institutional trust in Iran, as opposed to the absence of this relationship in Russia, may be rooted in the different cryptocurrency regulations in these two countries. In Iran, the government has adopted a more restrictive approach to cryptocurrency, initially imposing a ban on its trading and possession in 2018. While the ban was subsequently lifted, certain restrictions remain in place (Freeman Law 2020). Consequently, using cryptocurrency in Iran might be perceived as a nonconformist behavior or indicative of a lack of trust in traditional financial institutions, potentially contributing to lower levels of institutional trust. In this scenario, we may propose that the link between modern investments and institutional trust is attributable to pre-existing low levels of trust, rather than trust being eroded as a consequence of economic insecurity resulting from sanctions. In contrast, Russia exhibits a higher degree of legal acceptance and official recognition of cryptocurrency (Freeman Law 2021). Therefore, the use of cryptocurrency in Russia may not be regarded as nonconformist conduct and, consequently, may not be strongly associated with diminished institutional trust.
We can further clarify this disparity by considering that, in comparison to Russians, Iranians place a higher emphasis on stimulation as a basic value (World Values… 2014) and exhibit particularly low levels of uncertainty avoidance (
We also investigated the role of socio-demographic characteristics in economic coping strategies. Our findings indicate that in both Russia and Iran, individuals with lower income levels are more inclined to seek extra work, use cost-cutting measures, and rely on social and material resources. These associations are more pronounced in Iran. Accordingly, we suggest that low income serves as a significant risk factor in both Russia and Iran for experiencing negative effects from sanctions and, consequently, resorting to economic coping strategies. Therefore, both countries may benefit from implementing policies aimed at protecting economically vulnerable segments of society. Additionally, we identified gender differences in modern investments in both Russia and Iran. This finding is consistent with previous research that demonstrates women are more risk averse and less inclined toward investing, compared to men (
This study has several limitations that need to be acknowledged. Firstly, the cross-sectional design of the study prevents us from establishing causality or drawing definitive conclusions about the relationship between institutional trust and economic coping strategies. It remains unclear whether individuals with lower institutional trust are more likely to resort to ECS, or if the negative impacts of sanctions, reflected in increased ECS utilization, lead to decreased institutional trust. Additionally, we cannot definitively attribute the use of ECS solely to sanctions, as other factors such as individual economic behavior, life choices, or risk tolerance may also contribute to varying levels of ECS utilization. Longitudinal studies are essential to provide further clarity on these findings.
There are also limitations related to the specific contexts studied. In the case of Iran, the long-term exposure to sanctions presents challenges in isolating the exact effects of sanctions on society. These effects may have developed gradually and become deeply ingrained in the culture, making them difficult to pinpoint through cross-sectional research. Conversely, in the case of Russia, the recent imposition of sanctions could have influenced the patterns observed in our results. Furthermore, cross-cultural comparisons between Russia and Iran are relatively rare, and making direct comparisons in economic behaviors and institutional trust without a comprehensive comparative investigation of their respective cultures provides only a limited perspective on the complex reality of the situation. Additionally, we did not explore the potential influence of religion, which could also play a significant role in shaping attitudes toward the government and preferred coping strategies in these regions.
Another limitation is the use of self-report measures, which are susceptible to response biases. This is particularly relevant to our measurement of institutional trust and the overall purpose of the study, as individuals may be hesitant to disclose politically sensitive information. The violation of normal distribution in ECS and institutional trust is another limitation, potentially affecting the generalizability of the findings.
In conclusion, our study reveals notable differences between Russians and Iranians in terms of their institutional trust and the use of economic coping strategies in response to sanctions. The findings indicate that sanctions impact institutional trust in distinct ways in Russia and Iran, as evidenced by the varying relationships between economic coping strategies and institutional trust in these two countries. In Russia, it appears that individuals who have turned to economic coping strategies have been more impacted by sanctions’ effect on institutional trust, particularly among those who have had to reduce expenses, seek extra work, and resort to social and material resources. Conversely, in Iran, there seems to be no significant association between institutional trust and overall economic coping strategies, suggesting that factors beyond economic insecurity contribute to low trust in this country. However, when we examined specific coping strategies among Iranians, we found that those who used cost-cutting measures and engaged in modern investments tended to have lower levels of institutional trust. These relationships appear to have emerged through pathways other than sanctions, such as low life satisfaction, restriction on certain investing activities in Iran, and cultural influences.
Future research could benefit from exploring the role of life satisfaction in mediating the relationship between economic coping strategies and institutional trust. Individuals’ perceptions of sanctions may also be subject of further research. Specifically, it is worth investigating whether society members view themselves as victims of political conflicts, justify sanctions or perceive them as unfair, and assess how living in a country subjected to economic sanctions from the international community affects their mental well-being, global identity, and attitudes toward out-group members, including those from countries that have imposed sanctions. Furthermore, it is important to recognize that Iran has endured sanctions for over four decades, leading people to develop workarounds for accessing utilities that were never readily available to them. In contrast, in the case of Russia, people lost access to services they previously had. Future research should address this point of distinction and explore how Russians have coped with the loss of these services over time.
This article is an output of a research project implemented as part of the Basic Research Program at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE University).
European Social Survey (2020) Source Questionnaire. URL: https://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/methodology/ess_methodology/source_questionnaire
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We used confirmatory factor analysis to assess the proposed theoretical factors of the ECS scale. The results confirm the structural validity of this scale in Russia and Iran. Fit statistics were also within the satisfactory range; Russia: CFI – 0.952, TLI – 0.941, RMSEA – 0.050, SRMR – 0.069. Iran: CFI – 0.944, TLI – 0.930, RMSEA – 0.034, SRMR – 0.062. Factor loadings are presented in Table
| ECS item | Factor loading | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
| Factor 1: Traditional stores of value | |||||
| 5. Have you started investing in gold? | 0.70/0.45 | ||||
| 7. Do you deposit money in foreign currency in Russian/Iranian banks? | 0.67/0.61 | ||||
| 8. Are you investing into real estate? | 0.57/0.55 | ||||
| 11. Have you begun to rent out an apartment, a country house or a garage? | 0.55/0.26 | ||||
| Factor 2: Modern investments | |||||
| 3. Have you started investing into Russian/Iranian stock? | 0.59/0.47 | ||||
| 4. Have you started investing into foreign stocks? | 0.77/0.79 | ||||
| 6. Have you started investing in cryptocurrency? | 0.75/0.70 | ||||
| Factor 3: Cost-cutting measures | |||||
| 9. Do you save on current expenses (food, clothes, shoes, etc.)? | 0.66/0.52 | ||||
| 14. Have you had to save on entertainment and vacation expenses? | 0.97/0.80 | ||||
| Factor 4: Seeking extra work | |||||
| 1. Are you looking for a new job at the moment? | 0.62/0.44 | ||||
| 2. Are you going to start a new business? | 0.54/0.45 | ||||
| 10. Are you looking for extra income opportunities? | 0.44/0.71 | ||||
| Factor 5: Resorting to social/material resources | |||||
| 12. Have you changed a living place for a cheaper alternative or started to share a house with relatives? | 0.68/0.49 | ||||
| 13. Have you sold any of your property? | 0.66/0.53 | ||||
| 15. Have you obtained financial support from relatives and friends? | 0.48/0.58 | ||||
| 16. Have you begun to receive help from public organizations? | 0.69/0.39 | ||||
| 17. Have you begun to receive help from social security agencies or other government organizations? | 0.47/0.32 | ||||
We examined the Spearman correlations between factors of economic coping strategies, family coping strategies, and income in both Russia and Iran. In terms of convergent validity, we expected that economic coping strategies would correlate with income and external coping strategies. We also hypothesized that there would be no significant relationship between economic coping strategies and internal family coping, thereby establishing discriminant validity. The results, which are presented in Table
Spearman Correlations of ECS with Income, Internal Family Coping, and External Family Coping Strategies (Russia / Iran)
| ECS Factors | Income | Internal Coping | External Coping |
|---|---|---|---|
| Social/material resorts | -0.21** / -0.27** | -0.151** / 0.046 | 0.240** / 0.199** |
| Modern investments | 0.06 / 0.08 | -0.059 / -0.024 | 0.174** / 0.002 |
| Cost-cutting measures | -0.24** / -0.25** | -0.033 / 0.107 | 0.074 / 0.056 |
| Traditional stores of value | 0.05 / 0.19** | -0.027 / 0.011 | 0.176** / -0.004 |
| Extra work | -0.12* / -0.12* | -0.071 / 0.105 | 0.176** / 0.146* |
Elaheh Khezri – Master of Psychology (HSE). Postgraduate student, School of Psychology of University of Sussex. Brighton, England. E-mail: e.khezri@sussex.ac.uk
Alexander Tatarko – Doctor of Psychology. Center for Socioculturel research, National Research University Higher School of Economics. Moscow, 101000 Russia. E-mail: tatarko@yandex.ru