The article examines the comparability of population census results across different years within the same territory, a challenge posed by changes in regional and municipal boundaries. The research focuses on recalculating population sizes within the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD) using the boundaries established by the 2020 census. This analysis spans from the 1939 all-Union census onward, aiming to ensure demographic comparability across different periods by adjusting for changes in municipal structures from 1939 to 2020.

In the course of this study, the authors have achieved the following outcomes, demonstrating scientific originality and novelty:

1. Developed and tested a methodology for recalculating population sizes in regions and municipal entities while considering changes in municipal structures.

2. For the first time, recalculated the population of the FEFD, covering all 11 constituent subjects and 230 municipal entities from 1939 to 2020, based on their current boundaries and accounting for territorial adjustments (derived from census data from 1939 to 2020). This method enables effective comparisons of population densities across various time periods.

3. Grouped FEFD regions and municipalities based on the mobility of their territorial boundaries, identifying stable, relatively stable, and unstable areas.

The practical implications of this research are significant, as the findings can be used to assess actual population growth rates in FEFD territories. These results have potential applications in academic studies on the demography of the Far East, as well as in state and municipal governance related to the socio-economic development of these regions.

demographic statistics, Far East, grouping of territories, municipal entities, population census, population size, regional statistics

The focused attention on the demographic development of the Far East is driven by the region’s unique and strategically significant role in the national security of the Russian Federation. As E.L. Motrich aptly notes, “the current century will be the first in Russia’s history when the country’s fate will be determined in Asia rather than in Europe. The foundation of the economy will no longer be vast territories and resources, but the people.” (Motrich 2016: 25). Meanwhile, as Academician A.G. Aganbegyan points out, demographic issues in the Far East receive insufficient attention in modern strategic planning documents. In particular, national programs and project developers often set unrealistic goals for the region (Aganbegyan 2019: 170). As demonstrated by researchers from the Economic Research Institute of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, “Post-Soviet Russia’s Far East is characterized by a low level of demographic stability.” (Burlaev et al. 2018: 9). Therefore, to achieve the geopolitical goal of securing population stability in the region, it is crucial to analyze the key demographic challenges of the Far East in their dynamic context and implement comprehensive measures that account for regional specificities.

A distinctive feature of the Far Eastern region is its relatively recent settlement compared to other territories of the Russian Federation. Limiting factors include not only its remoteness but also the challenges associated with its development (Motrich 2017: 134). The most active phase of settlement and development has occurred over the past 100 years, during which the region’s population has tripled – whereas Russia’s overall population has grown by just 1.5 times over the same period. This is a young region that, due to its geographical, political, and economic characteristics, maintains a flexible territorial structure. Throughout the 20th century, municipal boundaries shifted, territories merged, districts were abolished or newly created, and existing ones were renamed in response to governmental needs.

The numerous transformations in the territorial division of regions and municipalities within the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD), combined with the regional characteristics mentioned above, significantly complicate the retrospective analysis of demographic development in the Far East. These changes lead to data incompatibility across different years, making historical comparisons challenging. It is crucial to recognize that the accuracy of population statistics directly impacts both the quality of demographic forecasts and the effectiveness of policy measures (Fomin 2019).

The issue of accuracy and accessibility of population data at the municipal level is widely recognized and discussed by scholars worldwide. The quality of information on the spatial distribution of population dynamics can vary significantly. Moreover, disregarding changes in the composition and boundaries of regions and municipalities often results in a lack of accurate population data precisely where governments and organizations need it most (Wardrop et al. 2018: 3529).

At the same time, reliable information on population changes over time is crucial, as it enables scholars and practitioners to identify patterns in demographic development, track the contributions of birth, death, and migration waves over time, and examine the characteristics of demographic transitions (Blue and Espenshade 2011).

As foreign researchers rightly note, when analyzing long-term spatio-temporal changes using data published for administrative geographical units, adjustments are often necessary to account for boundary changes over time (Gregory 2008, 2009; Ekamper 2019: 9). For example, analyzing population dynamics in Khabarovsk Krai without considering territorial transformations might suggest that the region lost over 317.000 residents (22% of its population) between the 1939 and 1959 censuses. However, this decline resulted not from demographic factors but from geopolitical changes: Sakhalin Oblast was separated from Khabarovsk Krai in 1947, followed by Amur Oblast in 1948, Magadan Oblast in 1953, and Kamchatka Oblast in 1956. Similar processes occurred at the municipal level.

In 1998, the State Committee for Statistics of Russia published a statistical compendium titled The Population of Russia Over 100 Years (1897–1997) (Population of Russia…1998), which presents population data for the country’s regions across various periods. This work serves as an example of recalculating census results while accounting for territorial division changes. However, the compendium does not provide up-to-date population data at the municipal level. Additionally, at the time of its publication, the Far Eastern Federal District included only nine regions.

In some FEFD regions, specific scientific studies have already been conducted in this area. For example, A.N. Savvinova and V.V. Filippova analyzed municipal boundary changes in Yakutia using a methodology that aligns historical maps to a single cartographic framework. They performed cartometric calculations based on the territorial division of the Yakut Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic in 1962 and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) in 2008.

As a result, they identified four groups of districts: 1) districts that retained their original area; 2) districts with minor changes (0.1 to 5.000 sq. km); 3) districts with moderate changes (5.000 to 50.000 sq. km); 4) districts with significant changes (90.000 to 180.000 sq. km).

The study also highlights that examining settlement patterns across different historical periods, alongside territorial changes, can “reveal interesting cause-and-effect relationships” (Savvinova and Filippova 2009: 199).

Thus, a comprehensive analysis of territorial division dynamics across all regions and municipalities of the FEFD, within the boundaries established by the 2020 census, has not yet been conducted. This gap underscores the relevance and novelty of our research.

The aim of this study is to recalculate the population of regions and municipalities in the Far East based on census data, aligning it with their current boundaries. This includes accounting for all municipal structure changes between 1939 and 2020 to ensure demographic comparability across different years.

The object of the study is the municipalities of the Far Eastern Federal District within their current boundaries (as of the 2020 population census). The subject of the research is the population dynamics of FEFD territories, beginning with the All-Union Census of 1939.

Research Objectives:

1. Develop and test a methodology for estimating population size while accounting for changes in municipal structure.
2. Recalculate the population of FEFD regions and municipalities based on the results of the 1939, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989, 2002, 2010, and 2020 population censuses.
3. Classify FEFD regions and municipalities based on the mobility of their territorial boundaries.

To reassess the population of regions and municipalities in the FEFD, taking into account changes in territorial divisions, the authors developed and tested a specialized methodology consisting of the following five stages:

1. Formation of a list of municipalities that are part of the regions of the FEFD within their current boundaries (as of the most recent population census).
2. Analysis of municipal transformations reflected in decrees, resolutions, and other regulatory legal acts from the corresponding historical periods.
3. Formation of a transition matrix for municipalities or their parts between regions, accounting for changes in boundaries and names of municipalities within the FEFD.
4. Collection of population data for regions and municipalities within the FEFD at the time of each census.
5. Recalculation of the population of municipalities within the FEFD using the transition matrix (point 3), adding data for incorporated territories and subtracting data for those lost. The population of regions within the FEFD is recalculated by summing the populations of the municipalities within them (see Figure 1).

To identify changes in the territorial divisions of regions and municipalities in the FEFD, the following sources were analyzed:

1. Regional laws on the establishment of territorial boundaries and the transformation of municipal districts and urban okrugs (Regional laws… 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2015, etc.).
2. Resolutions on the renaming of specific districts (Resolutions… 1972, 1992, etc.).
3. Decrees of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the RSFSR (Decrees… 1946, 1953, 1954, 1959, etc.).
4. Decrees of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of individual union republics (Decrees… 1965, 1989, etc.).
5. Decrees of the President of the Russian Federation (Decrees… 1998, 2016, etc.).
6. Information bulletins from the Records of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR (Information bulletins… 1941, 1943, 1944, 1954, etc.).
7. Reference books, dictionaries, encyclopedias, and publications on the official websites of municipal administrations in the FEFD (Administrative-Territorial Structure… 2009; Amur Oblast… 1989; Buryat ASSR… 1984; etc.).

The primary source of data for analyzing population dynamics in the municipalities of the Far East was the population censuses conducted in 1939, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989, 2002, 2010 (Demoscope Weekly), and 2020 (Rosstat 2021). The 1926 census was not considered, as detailed information for municipalities is only available for the Buryat-Mongolian and Yakut Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republics. Data for the districts of the Far Eastern Krai is presented as a whole, making it difficult to determine the exact population within modern boundaries. It is important to note that data from population censuses conducted in different years may not be directly comparable due to differences in accounting methodologies. Until 1989, the resident population was counted (i.e., the category of citizens presents at a specific moment in a particular locality or territory), while from 2002 onward, the permanent population has been accounted for (i.e., the category of citizens with a permanent place of residence in a specific locality or territory) (Russia’s Population… 1998; Rosstat 2020; Federal law… 2002).

Figure 1.

Methodology for Recalculating the Population of Regions and Municipalities in the FEFD. Source: created by the authors.

Statistics for the intercensal periods were not included in the analysis at this stage. Annual population estimates between censuses are typically based on the results of the most recent census by adding the number of births and arrivals and subtracting the number of deaths and departures. These calculations accumulate errors in population estimates over the years, which are later corrected using the results of the new census.

This issue has long been recognized by scholars and practitioners. For instance, statisticians noted as early as 1953: “It is evident that to obtain accurate data on the population size, one must have completely accurate data on births, deaths, arrivals, and departures resulting from mechanical population movement. However well the registration of population movements is organized, over time, for a multitude of reasons, errors accumulate in the records...” (Podyachikh 1953: 8). More recent studies also address this problem: “...for the pre-revolutionary period and practically for the entire first half of the 20th century, there was not enough accurate information on almost all components of such calculations (population size calculations)” (Population of Russia… 1998). For these reasons, only the results of the censuses were analyzed.

Stage 1. Formation of a List of Municipalities That Are Part of the Regions of the FEFD as of the 2020 Census

The Far Eastern Federal District is the largest district in the Russian Federation, occupying about 40% of the country’s territory. Since 2018, it has included 11 regions: the Republics of Buryatia and Sakha (Yakutia), the Zabaykalsky, Kamchatka, Primorsky, and Khabarovsk Krais, as well as the Amur, Magadan, and Sakhalin Regions, the Jewish Autonomous Oblast, and the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. Currently, there are 230 municipalities within the regions of the FEFD (see Appendix, Table A1).

Stages 2–3. Analysis of Territorial Transformations That Occurred in the FEFD from 1939 to 2020 and Formation of the Transition Matrix for Municipalities or Their Parts Between Regions

The geographical boundaries of the Far Eastern Federal District (formerly the Far Eastern Krai, Far Eastern Oblast, and Far Eastern District) and its territorial composition have actively changed over the past 100 years. “At different times, Zabaykalsky Krai and Yakutia were included in the Far East... In 1957, the Yakut ASSR was included in the Far Eastern Economic Region” (Rybakovsky 1990: 4). Transformations also occurred within the macroregion itself: municipalities were consolidated, reorganized, and renamed. The modern boundaries of the Far Eastern Federal District were established relatively recently, specifically on November 3, 2018 (Decree of the President… 2018), when, by decree of the President of the Russian Federation, the Republic of Buryatia and Zabaykalsky Krai were included in its composition.

The foundations of the administrative-territorial division in effect in the Far East at the beginning of the analyzed time period were established by a decision of the Presidium of the Central Executive Committee of the USSR on January 4, 1926. According to this decision, a transition was made from provinces, counties, and volosts to a division based on krais, okrugs, and districts: the Far Eastern Oblast was transformed into the Far Eastern Krai, with its center in the city of Khabarovsk and nine okrugs (Amur, Vladivostok, Zeya, Kamchatka, Nikolaevsk, Sakhalin, Sretensk, Khabarovsk, and Chita), which were divided into 75 districts. The new system of municipal organization took into account not only historical and economic characteristics but also the population structure living in the given territory, including its ethnic composition (Tkacheva 2017). Additionally, within the boundaries of the modern Far East were the Buryat-Mongolian and Yakut Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republics, which were not part of the Far Eastern Krai at that time.

On October 20, 1938, three months before the 1939 population census, the Far Eastern Krai was divided into Khabarovsk Krai and Primorsky Krai (see Figure 2). Khabarovsk Krai included the Amur, Kamchatka, Lower Amur, Sakhalin, and Khabarovsk Oblasts, the Jewish Autonomous Oblast, as well as the Koryak and Chukotka National Okrugs, and districts under direct krai jurisdiction. By 1956, the Sakhalin Oblast (1947), Amur Oblast (1948), Magadan Oblast (1953), and Kamchatka Oblast (1956) had become independent federal subjects. The Jewish Autonomous Oblast was separated only in 1991.

Figure 2.

Political and administrative division of Primorsky and Khabarovsk Krais as of December 1, 1938. Source: Pocket Atlas of the USSR (1939). Main Administration of Geodesy and Cartography under the Council of People’s Commissars of the USSR, Leningrad.

To assess the dynamics of population changes in municipal formations, data within the same territorial boundaries were used. This required a comparison of boundaries across different periods to identify changes in the municipal organization of the Far Eastern Federal District. Based on this analysis, a transition matrix was formed, detailing the changes in boundaries and names of municipalities within the region.

A striking example of instability in the municipal structure is the Selenginsky District of the Republic of Buryatia (Figure 3).

Figure 3.

Diagram of changes in the municipal structure of the Selenginsky District, Republic of Buryatia. Source: compiled by the authors.

In 1939, part of the territory of the existing Selenginsky Aimak was separated to form the new Ivolginsky Aimak. On December 3, 1960, the Gilbirinsky, Orongoysky, and Nizhneubukunsky rural councils were transferred back from the Ivolginsky Aimak. Later that year, the village of Ganzurino and the settlement of Ganzurino Station from the Orongoysky rural council of the Selenginsky Aimak were transferred to the Targabatai Aimak. On April 2, 1963, as part of the administrative-territorial reform of the USSR, rural districts were consolidated, and the Selenginsky Aimak was abolished. Seven rural councils and the workers’ settlement of Selenduma were incorporated into the Kyakhtinsky Aimak, while Naushki and Chikoy became part of the Gusinoozyorsk City Council. On January 13, 1965, the Selenginsky Aimak was re-established from the Kyakhtinsky Aimak. On January 22, 1965, the village of Ardasan was transferred from the Gusinoozyorsk City Council to the Zagustaysky rural council of the Selenginsky Aimak. On December 28, 1972, the Nizhneubukunsky rural council was transferred from the Ulan-Ude Aimak to the Selenginsky Aimak. In 1977, the Selenginsky Aimak was renamed Selenginsky District (Buryat ASSR… 1984). In 1998, Gusinoozyorsk ceased to be a city of republican subordination and was incorporated into the Selenginsky District (Administration of the Municipality… 2023).

Based on the analysis of historical data from 1939 to 2020 on each of the 230 municipalities in the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD), the following three groups were identified:

1. Stable Municipalities: These municipalities experienced no changes in their boundaries throughout the entire period. A total of 82 administrative units (36% of the total) fall into this category.
2. Relatively Stable Municipalities: These municipalities underwent changes in their administrative boundaries during the study period, but these transformations were minor and did not result in significant structural changes. This group consists of 17 administrative units (7% of the total).
3. Unstable Municipalities: These municipalities experienced significant changes in their territorial divisions, including mergers, divisions, or complete abolition. This group includes 131 administrative units (57% of the total).

Regional Insights:

• Republic of Buryatia: Out of the 23 municipalities, 4 remained stable throughout the analyzed period (the Bichursky, Kyakhtinsky, Mukhorshibirsky districts, and the urban district “City of Ulan-Ude”). The remaining 19 municipalities (83%) experienced significant changes and thus fall into the “unstable” group.
• Sakhalin Oblast: This region showed the most dynamic territorial changes, with 94% of its municipalities (17 out of 18) having non-permanent boundaries.
• Regions with the Highest Proportion of Stable Municipalities include Jewish Autonomous Oblast: 67% (4 out of 6 municipalities); Republic of Sakha (Yakutia): 47% (17 out of 36 municipalities) and Primorsky Krai: 47% (16 out of 34 municipalities).

In the Appendix (Table A2), stable and relatively stable municipalities across all subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD) are listed. Unstable municipalities have been excluded from the analysis of population changes due to significant transformations in their boundaries, which prevent an adequate assessment of the true dynamics of demographic indicators during the analyzed period. This is because the available information is incomplete, and additional assumptions and hypotheses would be required for recalculation (for example, if a territory were divided between two municipalities, it would have to be assumed that the population was split equally).

Stages 4–5. Collection and Recalculation of Population Data by Regions and Municipalities of the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD).

For comparison of the population size in the Far Eastern Federal District across different periods, data were recalculated based on the boundaries established during the 2020 census. This recalculation is one of the key outcomes of the study, characterized by its originality and novelty. The dynamics of the total population by regions of the macroregion, taking into account all changes in municipal boundaries from 1939 to 2020, are presented in Table 1.

Over the 50-year period from 1939 to 1989, the population of the regions in the Far East consistently grew with each census, which can be attributed to the active settlement and development of the territory. The only exception was Sakhalin Oblast, where, according to the 1970 census, the population decreased by 5% compared to 1959. By 1989, the population of the Far East (in its current borders) reached an all-time peak of 10.4 million people. After that, a period of population decline began. According to the results of the last three censuses, a slight population increase was observed only in the Republic of Buryatia (+0.7% in 2020) and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) (+1.0% in 2010, +3.9% in 2020). This trend is characteristic of regions with a high proportion of Indigenous peoples of the North and the Far East, who tend to have higher birth rates due to their traditional way of life and strong family values. Overall, between 1939 and 2020, the population of the Far Eastern Federal District increased by 78%. However, a decline was recorded only in Magadan Oblast, where the population decreased by 9%.

Further research on demographic development was conducted for the “stable” and “relatively stable” municipalities based on their administrative boundaries, excluding unstable districts that underwent significant transformations. To analyze population dynamics from census to census, groups were identified based on the percentage change relative to the previous period, categorized as growth (105.1% and above), stagnation (95–105%), and decline (94.9% and below) (see Appendix, Table A2).

It is important to note that the recalculation of population figures for districts within their current boundaries revealed that some municipalities in the Far Eastern Federal District have experienced population decline throughout the entire analyzed period. These include the Baleysky, Karymsky, Krasnochikoysky, and Shilkinsky municipal districts of Zabaykalsky Krai, the Yakovlevsky municipal district of Primorsky Krai, and the Magdagachinsky municipal district of Amur Oblast. One of the most striking examples is the Baleysky municipal district, where the population decreased more than 3.5 times – from 56.100 in 1939 to 15.900 in 2020. Despite this significant decline, the district is classified as “relatively stable,” with only minor changes in its boundaries, which are incomparable to the scale of population loss. The other five districts listed also had stable boundaries.

Another group of municipalities consists of territories where, despite consistent decline or stagnation, a single period of population growth was recorded. These include the Ulyotovsky and Chernyshevsky municipal districts of Zabaykalsky Krai, the Anuchinsky municipal district and the Partizansky urban district of Primorsky Krai, the Okhotsky municipal district of Khabarovsk Krai, the Skovorodinsky municipal district of Amur Oblast, and the Obluchensky municipal district of the Jewish Autonomous Region. In most cases, the population growth during one of these periods can be attributed to external factors. For example, in the Skovorodinsky municipal district, the population increased by 7% between 1970 and 1979, which was linked to the commencement of construction on the BAM – Tynda railway line in 1971. By 1978, the railway line was operational, after which the process of gradual outflow of labor migrants began.

Territories where the population has consistently grown throughout the entire analyzed period, with only minor periods of stagnation, include the urban district of “City of Ulan-Ude” in the Republic of Buryatia; the Amginsky, Megino-Kangalassky, Namsky, and Khangalassky municipal districts; the city of Yakutsk (including the urban district of Zhatay) in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia); the Artemovsky and Ussuriysky urban districts of Primorsky Krai; the Khabarovsky municipal district and the urban district of “City of Khabarovsk” in Khabarovsk Krai; and the Blagoveshchensky municipal district and the city of Blagoveshchensk in Amur Oblast. The most remarkable example in this group is the city of Yakutsk. Over nearly 100 years (1939–2020), the population in this territory grew consistently from census to census, increasing nearly 6.5 times overall: from 60.2 thousand to 384.4 thousand people. This is one of the most impressive growth rates observed among the municipalities of the Far East. A steady population increase was also characteristic of the city of Ulan-Ude, although at a much slower pace compared to Yakutsk.

Thus, within the framework of our research, the following results have been obtained, characterized by scientific novelty and originality:

1. A methodology for recalculating the population of regions and municipalities, considering changes in municipal structure, has been developed and tested.
2. For the first time, a recalculation of the population in the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD) has been conducted, taking into account all 11 subjects and 230 municipalities, for the period from 1939 to 2020. This recalculation is based on their modern boundaries and considers changes in territorial divisions (based on the results of the censuses conducted in 1939, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989, 2002, 2010, and 2020). This process has enabled a comparison of the population of these territories over different time periods.
3. The regions and municipalities of the FEFD have been categorized according to the mobility of their territorial boundaries, distinguishing between stable, relatively stable, and unstable territories.

The practical significance of this work lies in the applicability of the results obtained for assessing the actual dynamics of the population in the territories of the FEFD. These findings can be valuable for research focused on the demographics of the Far East, as well as for state and municipal governance concerning the socio-economic development of these regions.

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Marina Andreevna Donets – Senior Analyst, Eastern State Planning Center, Khabarovsk, 680000, Russia. E-mail: donets@vostokgosplan.ru

Tatiana Andreevna Doroshenko – Head of the sector “Modeling of socio-demographic processes”, Eastern State Planning Center, Moscow, 127025, Russia. E-mail: t.doroshenko@vostokgosplan.ru

Elena Andreevna Rossoshanskaya – Candidate of Economics, Leading expert analyst on social modeling, Eastern State Planning Center, Moscow, 127025, Russia. E-mail: e.rossoshanskaya@vostokgosplan.ru