Economic determinants of fertility forecasting in Russia
Population and Economics 2(4): 161-186, doi: 10.3897/popecon.2.e36063
Economic determinants of fertility forecasting in Russia
expand article infoAleksey Kashepov
‡ Institute for Macroeconomic Studies Under the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, Russia
Open Access
Abstract
The article presents the author’s concept of demographic forecasting, which argues that GDP, other macroeconomic and socio-economic (level of life) processes and indices do matter. The purpose of the article is to demonstrate the possibilities of publicly available (which are part of standard mathematic and statistical programs) methods of mathematical statistics to identify economic factors of population reproduction and fertility in particular. The article justifies the possibility of forecasting the total fertility rate (TFR) on the basis of macroeconomic forecasts of the dynamics of the gross national product (GDP) and other key economic indicators.
Keywords
population; demographic forecast; fertility forecast;demographic and economic factors of fertility