Corresponding author: Aleksandra V. Korolenko ( coretra@yandex.ru ) © 2019 Aleksandra V. Korolenko.
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Citation:
Korolenko AV (2019) Population development trends in Russia and China in the 21st century. Population and Economics 3(2): 45-64. https://doi.org/10.3897/popecon.3.e37961
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Currently, Russia and China are in an intermediate position between rich developed countries with declining indigenous populations and poor developing countries with a relatively fast-growing population. However, if China is the world leader in population size (1.38 billion people), Russia, with its much larger territory, has almost ten times less population (144.3 million). However, according to the UN forecasts both countries are facing the same challenge in the 21st century: it is a significant reduction in population size, which necessitates the identification of the prerequisites, causes and effects of the upcoming demographic transformations. This fact determined the purpose of this article – analysis of the population development in Russia and China in the first decades of the 21st century, identification of its differences and general trends. The research was based on statistics from the United Nations, the World Bank and the World Health Organization. The author analyzes the dynamics of population size, age structure, gender ratio, natural movement (fertility and mortality), life expectancy and mortality rate structure. Trends of population development both common for two countries and specific for each of them, were identified; according to the author, they should be taken into account in shaping responds to demographic challenges and in elaborating mechanisms for managing demographic processes.
21st century, population development, population trends, China, Russia
The current development of the world population is characterized by two distinct poles: on the one hand, rich developed countries with declining indigenous populations, and on the other, poor developing countries with relatively rapidly growing populations (
Close economic and political cooperation between the two countries and their territorial proximity also contributed to numerous migration flows. As V. L. Larin noted, international tourism plays a huge role in Russian-Chinese relations: on the one hand, it is a legal way to move people and goods across the border, which is one of the sources of economic development of bordering territories, on the other hand, is a channel for irregular migrants to Russia (
Currently, the population development of China and Russia has both similarities and differences. China has the largest population in the world (1.38 billion people), while Russia ranks only 9th (144.3 million people) (
According to the UN forecasts, the population of both countries will decrease in the coming decades: by 2050 in China it will reduce to 1.36 billion people, in Russia – to 132.7 million people, and by 2100 – to 1.02 billion in China and 124.0 million people in Russia. By 2030, India will become the world first country in terms of population size, overtaking China by almost 72 million people; by 2050 this gap will reach 295 million people, and by 2100 – 496 million people people (
To conduct effective domestic and international policy in China and Russia, maintain their geopolitical and national security, it is extremely important to understand the preconditions and nature of the upcoming demographic transformations, which will enable identifying measures to respond to population challenges and to develop mechanisms to manage the demographic processes. The purpose of this article is to analyze the population development of Russia and China in the first decades of the 21st century, to identify its differences and general trends. Selecting this time interval for analysis is not accidental: during this period, a model of cross-border Russian-Chinese relations is being finalized, strategic and trade-economic cooperation developed most actively. In addition, the beginning of the 21st century in both countries was marked by an increase in a number of disturbing demographic issues, the most acute of which is population ageing.
Theoretical background. Many scientific works are dealing with the study of the population development trends in China in the 21st century, including the challenge of rapid population ageing, the exhaustion of the “demographic dividend”, and the reduction of the working-age population (
The information basis for the research are official statistics from international organizations, namely the Health Nutrition and Population Statistics databases of the World Bank, Global Health Estimates of the World Health Organization, World Population Prospects of the United Nations.
The review of population development trends in the two countries was carried out on the basis of indicators of population size, its age composition, gender ratio, natural movement (fertility and mortality), life expectancy and mortality patterns. When working with data, general scientific methods were used — analysis, comparison and generalization, tabular and graphic method.
As noted above, the population of China is almost 10 times larger than that of Russia. In addition, there is a difference in the dynamics of this indicator in the period between 2000 and 2016. While the population of the People’s Republic of China increased by 9 per cent during the period under review (116 million), the population of the Russian Federation, by contrast, decreased by 2 per cent (2.3 million).
In 2000-2016 there was no significant change in the number of rural and urban residents in Russia (Fig.
Whereas in 2000 the share of urban and rural population in the People’s Republic of China was 36 and 64% respectively, in 2016 it was 57 and 43% respectively (Fig.
Population of China, 2000-2016 (millions). Source: Health Nutrition and Population Statistics. World Bank. Available at: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=health-nutrition-and-population-statistics#
Population of Russia in 2000-2016(millions). Source: Health Nutrition and Population Statistics. World Bank. Available at: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=health-nutrition-and-population-statistics#
Ratio of urban and rural population in China, 2000 — 2016 (%). Source: Health Nutrition and Population Statistics. World Bank. Available at: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=health-nutrition-and-population-statistics#
Ratio of urban and rural population in Russia, 2000 — 2016 (%). Source: Health Nutrition and Population Statistics. World Bank. Available at: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=health-nutrition-and-population-statistics#
Disproportion in sex ratio is currently an important feature of the population development both in China and Russia. However, the essence of this issue is different in two countries. Whereas in China the male population exceeds the female population, in the Russian Federation, on the contrary, the number of women is higher than that of men. Thus, in 2016, per 1,000 men there were 941 women in China and 1,152 women in Russia (Fig.
Sex ratio in the population of Russia, 2000 — 2016 (women per 1,000 men in different age groups). Source: Health Nutrition and Population Statistics. World Bank. Available at: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=health-nutrition-and-population-statistics#
Sex ratio in the population of China, 2000 — 2016 (women per 1,000 men in different age groups). Source: Health Nutrition and Population Statistics. World Bank. Available at: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=health-nutrition-and-population-statistics#
According to experts, the gender imbalance in China is a result of the policy of limiting the birth rate. It resulted to a number of serious consequences: the problem of male solitude and celibacy due to the number of grooms exceeding brides, the spread of same-sex relationships among men because of the inability to form a heterosexual couple, aggravating the criminal situation associated with trafficking girls (
Both in China and Russia, during the period under review, the proportion of the child population decreased (from 25 to 18 per cent and from 18 to 17 per cent respectively) and the proportion of older persons increased (from 7 to 10 per cent and from 8 to 10 per cent respectively). It should be noted that in both countries, the proportion of older persons aged 65 years and over has long surpassed the mark of 7%, therefore, according to the scale of population ageing of the United Nations, their population is recognized as “ageing”. According to UN forecasts, the share of population 65 years and older in China will reach 26% in 2050 and 32% in 2100, in Russia – 22% and 24% respectively (
Demographic ageing is a global trend that is an inevitable consequence of demographic transition. The hallmark of ageing in China is its acceleration in the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, mainly due to a decline in fertility (so-called “bottom-up ageing”), which was also facilitated by the implementation of the “One family – one child” policy (
In the Russian Federation, one of the main causes of ageing is also the reduction of fertility to the below replacement level. However, the specificity of the transformation of the age structure of the Russian population is due not only to the evolutionary process of demographic transition. It is also rooted in “spontaneous” factors, namely historical disasters of the first half of the 20th century and their “echo”, which strongly deformed the age pyramid, contributed to the wave-like dynamics of the number of all age groups (
Currently, the age structures of the population of the two countries have common features, namely similar proportions of the population under 15 years of age (18% in China and 17% in Russia) and population 65 years of age and older (10% in both). A distinctive feature of the population development in the PRC in 2000-2016 is the increase in the share of the working-age population (15-64 years) in the total population (from 69 to 72%), as a result of which most favourable age structure parameters were created, which provided a “demographic dividend” to the country (
The construction of age-sex pyramids also helps to characterize changes in the structure of the population. By the beginning of the 21st century, both Russia and China had noticeable “dips” due to the socio-economic turmoil and political events of the 20th century. So, on the pyramid for the Russian Federation there are “dips” in the number of children born in the 1990s, as well as of people whose childhood and youth fell on the years of the Second World War (so-called “children of war”; Fig.
Age-sex pyramid of the population of Russia in 2000. Source: Health Nutrition and Population Statistics // World Bank. Available at: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=health-nutrition-and-population-statistics#
Age-sex pyramid of the population of China in 2000. Source: Health Nutrition and Population Statistics. World Bank. Available at: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=health-nutrition-and-population-statistics#
Age-sex pyramid of the population of Russia in 2016. Source: Health Nutrition and Population Statistics. World Bank. Available at: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=health-nutrition-and-population-statistics#
Age-sex pyramid of the population of China in 2016. Source: Health Nutrition and Population Statistics. World Bank. Available at: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=health-nutrition-and-population-statistics#
The analysis of the age structure of the population of China and Russia from a gender perspective allows to reveal additional differences. Between 2000 and 2016 in China the share of children under 15 years of age among men and women decreased significantly (by 6.7%), while the share of the working-age population and the elderly population increased (by 3.7% and 3.1% respectively) (Table
Male and female population of China and Russia by age groups in 2000 — 2016 (%)
Age groups (years) | Years | 2016 to 2000, +/- | |||||||||
2000 | 2005 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |||
Male population | |||||||||||
China | 0-14 | 25.1 | 20.5 | 18.6 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 | -6.7 |
15-64 | 68.4 | 72.2 | 73.5 | 73.5 | 73.3 | 73.1 | 72.8 | 72.5 | 72.1 | +3.7 | |
65 and older | 6.4 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 9.5 | +3.1 | |
Russia | 0-14 | 19.9 | 16.7 | 16.5 | 16.7 | 17.1 | 17.6 | 18.1 | 18.6 | 19.1 | -0.8 |
15-64 | 71.7 | 73.7 | 74.6 | 74.3 | 73.8 | 73.2 | 72.6 | 72.0 | 71.2 | -0.5 | |
65 and older | 8.4 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 9.8 | +1.4 | |
Female population | |||||||||||
China | 0-14 | 24.1 | 19.2 | 17.1 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 16.9 | -7.2 |
15-64 | 68.5 | 72.6 | 74.0 | 74.0 | 73.8 | 73.5 | 73.2 | 72.8 | 72.3 | +3.8 | |
65 and older | 7.4 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 10.3 | 10.8 | +3.4 | |
Russia | 0-14 | 16.7 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 13.7 | 14.1 | 14.5 | 14.9 | 15.3 | 15.7 | -1.0 |
15-64 | 67.2 | 68.7 | 69.8 | 69.6 | 69.2 | 68.8 | 68.2 | 67.7 | 67.0 | -0.2 | |
65 and older | 16.0 | 17.5 | 16.7 | 16.7 | 16.7 | 16.7 | 16.8 | 17.0 | 17.3 | +1.3 |
It is noteworthy that currently, the age composition of the male population in China and Russia is identical. While among the female population in China the share of working-age groups is higher (72.3% in China compared to 67% in Russia) and in the Russian Federation the share of children under 15 years of age is higher (17.3% in Russia compared to 10.8% in China).
The dynamics of the age structure entails changes in the dependency ratio. The dependency ratio reflects the number of dependants (children under 15 years of age and over 65 years of age) per 100 persons of working age. In China, the ratio declined from 46.1 in 2000 to 38.5 in 2016, with a minimum value recorded in 2010 (35.6%) (Fig.
Dependency ratio in China, 2000-2016 (%). Source: Health Nutrition and Population Statistics. World Bank. Available at: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=health-nutrition-and-population-statistics#
In Russia, the total dependency ratio did not changed significantly between 2000 and 2016: from 44.3 per cent to 45.1 per cent, while the burden of people aged 65 and over increased from 18 to 20 per cent (Fig.
Dependency ratio in Russia, 2000-2016 (%). Source: Health Nutrition and Population Statistics. World Bank. Available at: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=health-nutrition-and-population-statistics#
Population dynamics and age structure strongly depend on natural movement, which in turn is determined by the birth and death rates. Between 2000 and 2016 in China, the birth rate consistently exceeded the death rate (by 1.8 times on average; Fig.
In Russia during the period under review, the situation was different. Until 2011, the death rate exceeded the birth rate, and there was a natural decline in the population (Fig.
Birth and death rates in China, 2000-2016 (per 1000 population). Source: Health Nutrition and Population Statistics. World Bank. Available at: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=health-nutrition-and-population-statistics#
Birth and death rates in China, 2000-2016 (per 1000 population). Source: Health Nutrition and Population Statistics. World Bank. Available at: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=health-nutrition-and-population-statistics#
One of the most important indicators of reproduction is the total fertility rate (TFR), which represents the number of children that would have been born on average to a woman over her lifetime, under the condition that current age-specific fertility rates remain unchanged (
Total fertility rate in China and Russia, 2000–2016 (number of births per woman of reproductive age). Source: Health Nutrition and Population Statistics. World Bank. Available at: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=health-nutrition-and-population-statistics#
In both states, however, the TFR level is below the level required for reproduction (2.11). This fact is confirmed by another demographic indicator — net reproduction rate, which reflects the proportion of maternal generations replaced by daughters. According to the latest UN data on average for 2010-2015 in China its value was 0.726, in Russia — 0.807 (
The TFR in China has been below the level of reproduction for almost twenty years. The situation is complicated by the fact that such an intensive transformation of the model of population reproduction took place in China in an extremely short time — in just two to three decades, while in European countries it took almost a hundred years (
Infant mortality is one of the most important integral indicators, which characterizes not only reproductive health, but also the demographic situation as a whole, reflecting the socio-economic well-being of society (
Infant mortality rate in China and Russia, 2000-2016 (deaths per 1,000 live births). Source: Health Nutrition and Population Statistics. World Bank. Available at: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=health-nutrition-and-population-statistics#
There are noticeable differences in the mortality patterns of the two countries. In 2016, the standardized death rate in China exceeded Russian for such causes as respiratory system diseases (4 times), nutrition disorders (3 times), diabetes, the musculoskeletal system diseases, neurological diseases, diseases of the sexual area, endocrine and immune diseases, blood diseases (2 times), neonatal conditions (1.5 times) (Table
Age-standardized death rates by cause of death in Russia and China in 2000 and 2016 (per 100 thousand population)
Cause of death | China | Russia | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000 | 2016 | 2016 to 2000,% | 2000 | 2016 | 2016 to 2000,% | |
All causes | 800.1 | 615.5 | 76.9 | 1184.6 | 797.8 | 67.3 |
I. Infectious, maternal, perinatal diseases, eating disorders | 74.8 | 27.7 | 37.0 | 68.8 | 52.2 | 75.9 |
Infectious and parasitic diseases | 21.9 | 8.0 | 36.5 | 29.1 | 31.1 | 106.9 |
Respiratory infections | 26.2 | 11.7 | 44.7 | 25.7 | 16.2 | 63.0 |
Maternal diseases | 0.5 | 0.3 | 60.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 60.0 |
Infant diseases | 24.1 | 6.6 | 27.4 | 13.0 | 4.3 | 33.1 |
Nutrition disorders | 2.0 | 1.0 | 50.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 60.0 |
II. Non-communicable diseases | 659.5 | 542.4 | 82.2 | 947.0 | 659.7 | 69.7 |
Cardiovascular diseases | 271.5 | 262.4 | 96.6 | 608.6 | 391.4 | 64.3 |
Neoplasms | 170.9 | 134.8 | 78.9 | 178.0 | 153.0 | 86.0 |
Diseases of the respiratory system | 128.3 | 55.9 | 43.6 | 27.8 | 13.3 | 47.8 |
Diseases of the digestive system | 21.8 | 15.9 | 72.9 | 36.7 | 36.3 | 98.9 |
Diseases of the nervous system | 29.6 | 38.9 | 131.4 | 23.1 | 21.5 | 93.1 |
Mental disorders and disorders caused by the use of psychoactive substances | 2.2 | 2.7 | 122.7 | 42.7 | 25.3 | 59.3 |
Diseases of the sexual area | 11.8 | 12.4 | 105.1 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 69.0 |
Diabetes | 9.3 | 9.5 | 102.2 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 68.3 |
Congenital anomalies | 8.9 | 4.2 | 47.2 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 49.0 |
Endocrine and immune diseases, blood diseases | 1.8 | 1.5 | 83.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 81.8 |
diseases of musculoskeletal system | 1.2 | 1.3 | 108.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 70.0 |
Skin diseases | 0.4 | 0.5 | 125.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 87.5 |
Sudden infant death syndrome | 0.2 | 0.1 | 50.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 63.6 |
III. Injuries | 147.5 | 45.4 | 30.8 | 168.8 | 85.9 | 50.9 |
Unintentional injuries | 48.7 | 36.4 | 74.7 | 90.5 | 49.3 | 54.5 |
Deliberate injuries | 17.1 | 9.1 | 53.2 | 78.3 | 36.6 | 46.7 |
Between 2000 and 2016, both in China and Russia mortality from large classes of causes of death decreased — infectious, maternal, perinatal and dietary disorders, non-communicable diseases and external causes of death. Much of this progress was due to the development of national health care systems. In Russia, the National Project on Healthcare was launched in 2006, and the Health Development State Program for 2014-2020 was adopted. The priorities of the new Government policy are: improvement the health of citizens, raise in availability and quality of medical care, development of primary medical care and the preventive medicine, improvement of specialized, including high-tech medical care. In China, in 2009, health reforms aimed at expanding citizens health insurance coverage (especially for low-income citizens and rural residents), improving primary health care and hospital financing systems, increasing the availability of medicines (
At the same time, during the observed period in China, growth in mortality from certain cases was noted, namely from nerve system diseases (by 31%), mental diseases and diseases caused by consumption of psychoactive substances (by 23%), skin diseases (by 25%), diseases of the musculoskeletal system (by 8%) and the sex area (by 5%). In Russia, only growth in mortality from infectious and parasite diseases was noted (by 7%).
Reduction of the death rate in both countries resulted in an increase in life expectancy: between 2000 and 2016 it increased by 4 years in China (from 72 to 76 years) and by 6 years in Russia (from 66 to 72 years) (Table
Life expectancy at birth in China and Russia, 2000–2016 (years)
Sex | Years | 2016 to 2000, +/- | |||||||||
2000 | 2005 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |||
China | Both sexes | 72.0 | 74.0 | 75.2 | 75.4 | 75.6 | 75.8 | 75.9 | 76.1 | 76.3 | +4.3 |
Men | 70.4 | 72.5 | 73.8 | 74.0 | 74.2 | 74.3 | 74.5 | 74.6 | 74.8 | +4.4 | |
Women | 73.7 | 75.6 | 76.8 | 77.0 | 77.2 | 77.3 | 77.5 | 77.7 | 77.8 | +4.1 | |
Russia | Both sexes | 65.5 | 65.5 | 68.8 | 69.7 | 70.1 | 70.6 | 70.7 | 71.2 | 71.6 | +6.1 |
Men | 59.0 | 58.9 | 63.1 | 64.0 | 64.6 | 65.1 | 65.3 | 65.9 | 66.5 | +7.5 | |
Women | 72.3 | 72.5 | 74.9 | 75.6 | 75.9 | 76.3 | 76.5 | 76.7 | 76.9 | +4.6 |
Population development in Russia and China in the first decades of the 21st century has some similar trends. Firstly, these are common trends in the dynamics of demographic processes: population ageing primarily due to a decrease in birth rates, and, as a consequence, the dependency ratio growth, decrease in the level of general, infant and maternal death rates, mortality due to infectious diseases and digestive disorders, non-infectious and external causes of death, increase in life expectancy in men and women. Secondly, similar reproductive characteristics, namely, a below-replacement population reproduction pattern due to low birth rates. Thirdly, similar parameters of population structures in terms of approximately equal shares of the under-age and the elderly cohorts and identical age composition of the male population.
At the same time, the population development in China and Russia has significant differences related to the specifics of historical, sociocultural, economic and political conditions of the development of the two countries. The demographic characteristics of the two nations are to a large extent explained by differences in the stages of demographic transition. In Russia the “window of opportunity” for achieving a demographic dividend has already “closed” (after 2008 it faces a sustainable reduction in the share of working-age population and the dependency ratio growth). Meanwhile, China continues to benefit from the “demographic bonus” to this day, though this effect is forecasted to exhaust itself soon. Besides, the nature of the “demographic waves” in two countries is different: in Russian they are rooted in the wars and other political and socio-economic disasters of the 20th century; in China they are the result of the shifts of the State population policies in 1970s and 1980s.
The features of the population development in China in the 21st century are:
The features of population development in the contemporary Russia are:
These specific and common features of the population development in Russia and China should be taken into account in the construction of internal and international policies of both states, in shaping responds to demographic challenges and developing mechanisms for managing population processes.
For both China and Russia, the priority political measures should include the adjustment of the economy, the labour market, social systems (pension, health, social protection) and the nation as a whole to the population ageing. In means increasing the employment of older persons, encouraging employers to hire people in this age group, improving pension systems and social protection. Steps in this direction are already being taken. Thus, in Russia the retirement age has been raised, employer liability for dismissal of people of pre-retirement age has been introduced, and the unemployment benefit for persons of pre-retirement age has been increased. Unfortunately, these measures do not fully address the problems of the quality of life of older persons and the growing economic and social burden on the State and the working-age population. As noted by R. Lee and A. Mason, in order to better implement the second demographic dividend, which represents increased accumulation of assets, policies must be adopted to encourage creation of post-retirement savings by the working population (
Moreover, it is fundamentally important for both countries to implement of a set of measures for the formation of favourable parameters of population reproduction: for Russia – to overcome depopulation and stimulate fertility; for China – to stabilize fertility and the population size. In the 2000s, the principal measures of the population policy of the PRC were aimed at stabilizing the low birth rate with an emphasis on improving the quality of the population (
The research was carried out within the framework of the state task № 0168-2019-0011 “Demographic development of territories”.
Aleksandra Vladimirovna Korolenko, Junior Research Officer in the Department of Level and Style of Life Research of the Vologda Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences. E-mail: coretra@yandex.ru