Latest Articles from Population and Economics Latest 94 Articles from Population and Economics https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/ Thu, 28 Mar 2024 19:08:42 +0200 Pensoft FeedCreator https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/i/logo.jpg Latest Articles from Population and Economics https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/ The impact of long-distance travel to work on the health of commuting labour migrants: a literature review https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/109997/ Population and Economics 8(1): 37-51

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.8.e109997

Authors: Yuliya Y. Shitova

Abstract: This literature review analyzes the impact of commuting labour migration (CLM) on human health. Travel time is one of the major CLM factors affecting migrant health in both active and passive way. Fatigue and stress associated with commuting result in the increased blood pressure and risk of obesity. The paper also dwells upon the impact of CLM on worker stress by gender. The article also explores the relationship between CLM and mortality. Work-life balance plays a crucial role in migrant health, while satisfaction with life can be compromised due to insecure life style associated with CLM. There is an effect of adaptation that can influence migrant health in a positive way. In addition to negative aspects the article reviews benefits of CLM, including improved professional skills and higher income, and effective use of travel time. A special attention is payed to health of the Russian commuting migrants and their specific challenges and problems. The article is a comprehensive review of scientific literature on CLM impact of human health. the results obtained can be used to develop programs and policies aimed at improving health of labour migrants and mitigating negative effects of commuting labour migration.

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Research Note Thu, 7 Mar 2024 18:51:38 +0200
Digitalization in the Russian healthcare: barriers to digital maturity https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/111793/ Population and Economics 8(1): 1-14

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.8.e111793

Authors: Natalia S. Grigorieva, Alexandra E. Demkina, Anna N. Korobeynikova

Abstract: Over the last 20 years a significant progress has been made in the use of digital technologies in the Russian healthcare: a widespread introduction of health information systems (HIS), work with big data, and use of artificial intelligence. Hopes are pinned on IT technologies; it is expected that they will simplify healthcare activities, as well as take the quality of medical care to a new level. Ultimately, it will contribute to a better quality of life for the population. However, certain internal and external factors slow the advance of digital technologies, creating barriers to digital maturity in healthcare. Imperfection of the legal and regulatory framework and insufficient funding of healthcare and innovation have a negative impact on the rate of development and translation of new technologies into medicine. The article considers a low level of digital literacy among health care providers and low level of motivation to make changes in organizational processes as a serious barrier to e-health promotion. Modern Russian research on this topic has identified significant gaps in basic digital skills among health professionals. At the same time, a low level of digital knowledge and patients’ trust create a low demand for e-health product development, and thus cannot act as an additional driver of IT developments. Health digitalization is an absolute trend in the current development of healthcare in our country, and in view of modern social and demographic trends, the need for medical services will only increase. Introduction of digital technologies into practice should contribute to better quality of and higher access to medical services, therefore health digitalization is a timely and logical stage of medicine development in Russia.

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Review Article Thu, 7 Mar 2024 18:51:16 +0200
West and East: convergence or divergence of Millennials’ transition to adulthood in four European countries https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/112452/ Population and Economics 7(4): 68-90

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.7.e112452

Authors: Ekaterina S. Mitrofanova, Sergey A. Makarov

Abstract: The invention of the Internet and rapid technological advancements have transformed Millennials (born between 1980 and 1999) into the first generation that is truly global in its connectivity and experiences. To what extent are the changes in the transition to adulthood for Millennials global and universal? We compared Millennials in France, Finland, Estonia, and Russia to answer this question. Using data from the European Social Survey (conducted in 2006 and 2018), we examined six key events that mark adulthood: completion of professional education, leaving the parental home, first employment, first cohabitation, first marriage, and first childbirth. By comparing the structure, timing, and tempo of the occurrence of these starting events in the selected countries, we found that the transition to adulthood is becoming more unified but still retains country-specific characteristics. Socioeconomic events occur for the majority of Millennials (50-90%) at the ages of 18-20 in a more gradual way in France and Finland, and more abruptly in Estonia and Russia. Cohabitation is the most common event from the demographic part of transition to adulthood. In comparison to cohabitations, first marriages and childbirth occur for less than 50% of respondents and at much older ages. Russians have the highest prevalence of these events and experience them at a younger age.

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Research Article Fri, 29 Dec 2023 15:07:29 +0200
Cohort consumption in the Russian Federation https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/108830/ Population and Economics 7(4): 91-102

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.7.e108830

Authors: Kirill V. Kuznetsov

Abstract: The current demographic situation in both developed and developing countries is characterized by an aging population. From an economic perspective, this phenomenon holds practical significance for studying anticipated changes in the structure of state budget revenues and expenditures, as well as alterations in the overall consumption of goods and services. This paper investigates the spending patterns of different generations in the Russian Federation. In foreign literature, there is an observed increase in consumption with each successive generation compared to its predecessor. This trend is commonly attributed to declining fertility rates, the accumulation of capital by one generation, and its subsequent transfer to the next. Consequently, the younger generation tends to possess more capital than their forebears. The level of consumption across generations is also influenced by the life expectancy of the population; an extension of healthy life expectancy enables individuals to remain active in the workforce beyond retirement age. Utilizing data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS), HSE conducts cohort consumption estimates for the years 2000-2020, categorized into five-year age groups. The study results indicate an increase in consumption levels beyond the age of 50 for cohorts born between 1930 and 1955. Conversely, for cohorts born between 1960 and 1999, the consumption levels below the age of 50 remained relatively unchanged.

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Research Article Fri, 29 Dec 2023 12:30:28 +0200
Different experiences of children living in two-parent and single-parent families: Comparing generations born in the 1950s-1980s in Russia and in France https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/114980/ Population and Economics 7(4): 24-38

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.7.e114980

Authors: Elena Churilova, Sergei Zakharov

Abstract: This paper examines the life-time measures and trends of children’s experiences in single-parent and two-parent families in Russia and France, within the context of generations. The study was conducted using two panel waves of GGS-Russia (2004, 2007) and GGS-France (2005, 2008). The results indicate that despite the Second Demographic Transition starting later in Russia than in France, and with approximately equal proportions of children born to single mothers, Russian children born in intact families are more likely to live in single-parent families later in life than French children. However, children born outside of a union in Russia have an advantage over French children in terms of their experiences and time spent living in two-parent families. The study of intergenerational dynamics reveals an obvious trend in Russia of an increase, from generation to generation, in the time such children spend living in two-parent families, while the same indicator in France has remained practically stable.

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Research Article Fri, 22 Dec 2023 10:14:15 +0200
Russian Short-Term Mortality Fluctuations Data Series https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/114628/ Population and Economics 7(3): 188-197

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.7.e114628

Authors: Aleksey E. Shchur, Sergey A. Timonin, Elena V. Churilova, Egor V. Sergeev, Vera V. Sokolova, Olga A. Rodina, Bulat A. Shamsutdinov, Dmitry A. Jdanov, Vladimir M. Shkolnikov

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed significant gaps in the coverage and quality of the existing international and national statistical surveillance systems. The most reliable approach to estimating mortality associated with short-term risk factors or factors fluctuating within calendar years is based on estimating weekly excess mortality. Although this approach is obvious, its application turned out to be problematic due to the lack of reliable data. In response to this challenge, a new Short-Term Mortality Fluctuations (STMF) data series was created in 2020. The Russian Short-Term Mortality Fluctuations Data Series (RuSTMF) is a further development of the STMF idea at the regional level. It contains weekly crude and standardized death rates for the Russian regions and Russia as a whole. The main source for calculating death rates is depersonalized individual data on the deceased provided by the Rosstat. This database provides for the analysis of short- and medium-term changes in mortality in males, females and total population in Russia as a whole and its regions, as well as the estimation of «excess» deaths during short-term sharp increases in mortality due to, for example, heat or cold waves, seasonal influenza epidemics, the Covid-19 pandemic or technogenic catastrophes.

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Data Paper Tue, 19 Dec 2023 17:29:34 +0200
Population aging in the context of education. Comparison of selected EU countries https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/96981/ Population and Economics 7(3): 105-123

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.7.e96981

Authors: Eva Gruševá, Veronika Blašková

Abstract: The arrival of the fourth industrial revolution hasfundamentally affected the economy of the developed countries. New and developing fields will need workers with quality education corresponding to the needs and demands of technological development. Thus, the share of tertiary educated population significantly affects the economic level of every country. As a result of the projected population ageing in the developed countries, a major problem with the share of the economically active people can be expected across Europe. The increased share of tertiary educated people in economy can positively influence this problem. Therefore, the article deals with the projection of the share of tertiary educated people. On the basis of information on the education structure of individual EU countries, a hierarchical cluster analysis was created, which was used for selecting countries. For the two most significant clusters, the country with values of all selected indicators most similar to the cluster average values has been selected. A population projection was created for these countries, on the basis of which the total dependency ratio, child-dependency ratio and old-age dependency ratio were calculated. In conclusion, it can be stated that even if the population ageing continues, the number of tertiary-educated persons may remain unchanged.

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Research Article Fri, 3 Nov 2023 11:17:36 +0200
Household time allocation in Russia: economic or sociocultural model? https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/101852/ Population and Economics 7(3): 70-104

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.7.e101852

Authors: Elina A. Bugdaeva

Abstract: The article is focused on determining the dominant model of household time allocation in Russia based on the analysis of demographic, economic, social, and sociocultural factors. The main method of the study is a statistical analysis of the data from a household survey conducted by the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation in 2019 titled “Selective observation of the daily time use by the population”. The results of the study indicate an unfinished transition toward gender equality. The economic model of time allocation (the more one participates in the labor market, the less housework one does) is dominant during the work week, while the sociocultural model (gender determines the degree of workload in the household regardless of the level of employment in the labor market) takes precedence on the weekends. This is expressed in the increase in women’s unpaid work on weekends as compensation for missing out on household chores during the working weekdays. In addition, depending on the size of the gender gaps we identified “patriarchal” and “progressive” regions of Russia. Sociocultural characteristics turned out to be significant not only in the “patriarchal” regions but also in most of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Sociocultural attitudes weaken the economic model in the allocation of time between partners, especially on weekends. Thus, the economic model dominates on weekdays while the sociocultural one dominates on weekends.

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Research Article Fri, 20 Oct 2023 16:50:32 +0300
Involved fatherhood in Russia https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/107546/ Population and Economics 7(3): 48-69

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.7.e107546

Authors: Sofia M. Rebrey

Abstract: Involved fatherhood in Russia is defined and evaluated using a time diary. In one-third of the surveyed households, fathers devote more (or the same) time to childcare than mothers on weekends. Additionally, in one-third of households, fathers spend more than two hours with their children on weekends. An important characteristic of involved fatherhood is care diversity – they provide almost all types of care. However, they continue to play a secondary role, not performing the accompanying routine household services necessary for the full and independent care of the child, such as cooking and subsequent cleaning, washing clothes, etc. In only 3-4% of households, fathers take care of the child and household, but even in this case, they remain in the position of helpers since household management remains primarily a female activity. Involved fatherhood is facilitated by urban living, a higher level of education, and a higher income level for both parents.

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Research Article Fri, 29 Sep 2023 10:40:26 +0300
Psychological adaptation of Russians in post-Soviet countries: the role of context https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/107416/ Population and Economics 7(3): 1-24

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.7.e107416

Authors: Alexander N. Tatarko, Nadezhda M. Lebedeva

Abstract: The purpose of this paper was to study psychological adaptation of ethnic Russians in various contexts of post-Soviet countries. To achieve this goal, a survey was conducted in the following seven post-Soviet republics: Estonia (N=314), Kazakhstan (N=179), Kyrgyzstan (N=300), Armenia (N=109), Tajikistan (N=284), Latvia (N=334), Georgia (N=312). The total sample size equaled to 1832 people. The study showed that in different contexts of post-Soviet republics, psychological adaptation of Russians differs. The authors have identified two contextual conditions that are important for successful adaptation in post-Soviet countries: the policy towards ethnic Russians, which can be either inclusive or restrictive, as well as subjective cultural distance. Accordingly, four contexts of the adaptation of Russians have been identified. With a combination of inclusive policies and a short subjective cultural distance (Kazakhstan), the conditions for psychological adaptation are favourable, ethnic boundaries are permeable, bridging (interethnic) social capital is formed. However, there is a downside to such a favourable context – there are assimilation tendencies out there. With a combination of inclusive policies and a long subjective cultural distance (Kyrgyzstan, Armenia), Russians have the opportunity to fully preserve their ethnic identity and integrate into the host society. Such a context shows the highest scores of self-esteem as one of the indicators of psychological adaptation. In the case of a combination of restrictive policies and a short subjective cultural distance (Estonia, Latvia), Russians make kind of a “request” for integration, that is, the preservation of their own culture along with inclusion in the culture of host societies. A context combining restrictive policies and a large subjective cultural distance (Georgia, Tajikistan) is the most unfavourable for the psychological adaptation of Russians. It is characteristic that in this context, Russians are forced to reduce, “conceal” their ethnic identity, since the degree of their ethnic identity is negatively associated with life satisfaction, that is, with successful adaptation.

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Research Article Tue, 12 Sep 2023 09:19:21 +0300
Identifying Reproductive Behavior Arguments in Social Media Content Users’ Opinions through Natural Language Processing Techniques https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/97064/ Population and Economics 7(2): 40-59

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.7.e97064

Authors: Irina Kalabikhina, Ekaterina Zubova, Natalia Loukachevitch, Anthony Kolotusha, Zarina Kazbekova, Evgeny Banin, German Klimenko

Abstract: Big data provides researchers with valuable sources of information for studying demographic behavior in the population. One such source is the texts posted by social network users on various demographic issues. This study utilizes methods for automatically extracting user opinions from the “VKontakte” social network. The extracted texts are then classified using the Conversational RuBERT neural network model to investigate opinions related to reproductive behavior in the population. The classification process addresses two consecutive problems. Firstly, it aims to identify whether a user’s comment contains argumentation. Secondly, if an argument is present, it seeks to determine its type within the context of the “personal-public” dichotomy. To search for arguments and classify their types, six experiments were conducted, varying the dataset and the number of classes. The method employed for automatic extraction and classification of user opinions on the “VKontakte” social network has demonstrated the ability to accurately classify users’ comments, identifying the presence of argumentation and categorizing the arguments within the “personal-public” dichotomy. This enables the identification of personal and social attitudes, values, stories, and opinions, thus facilitating the study of reproductive behavior.

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Research Article Fri, 30 Jun 2023 23:08:26 +0300
Digital transformation of high-performing teams https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/98911/ Population and Economics 7(2): 60-93

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.7.e98911

Authors: Olga A. Zolotina, Tatiana O. Razumova, Yaroslav A. Sotnikov, Anton V. Nastavnyuk, Hergen Frerichs

Abstract: The paper studies the impact of the covid-19 pandemic and shift to remote work on team productivity. The purpose of the article is to analyze changes in agile team performance in a virtual format of work and to analyze risks and opportunities for management solutions to maintain or improve their work productivity. The study provides a literature review and empirical analysis of high-performing teams in the Russian companies. In the empirical part, the authors first conduct interviews with heads of HR-departments to collect general information on high-performing teams and risks, appeared after transition to remote work, and then study opinions of high-performing teams’ members to assess their own attitude to changes in work productivity in 2019-2021. In the result section the authors show changes in the management views and recognition of the hybrid and virtual team capabilities and demonstrate that recent agile team concepts are based more on partially-remote work and focus on individual rather than collaborative work and face-to-face work periods for innovative activities and team-building of agile project members as the way to maintain their high productivity.

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Research Article Fri, 30 Jun 2023 10:22:21 +0300
School-based Sexuality Education Curricula: Are Parents Supportive? https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/102566/ Population and Economics 7(2): 23-39

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.7.e102566

Authors: Viktoriya I. Yuodeshko

Abstract: This paper discusses the findings of a study on the attitudes of Belarusian parents with school-aged children towards school-based sexuality education programs. The study aimed to measure parental support for comprehensive sexuality education (CSE) and its individual components, identify the topics and age ranges approved by parents, and determine which course characteristics are important to them. Descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression were used to evaluate the factors that influence parental support for introducing sexuality education in schools. The study found that a fairly high share of 60.6% of parents were supportive of the introduction of CSE, despite low satisfaction and awareness of the current information presented in schools. Parents approved a median age of 13.3 years as the minimum age for CSE curriculum. However, topics such as safe use of cell phones, computers, the Internet, and social media; psychological pressure and violence; peer bullying; confronting peers; sources of help; relationships, love, friendship, parenting, and family were considered permissible for earlier age ranges. The study found that parental support to school-based sexuality education is influenced by several factors. These include parents’ normative ideas about the balance of responsibility between family and school in educating children and adolescents about sexuality, the level of awareness of and satisfaction with available information on sexual development and health in the school curriculum, whether parents have a college degree, parents’ personal experiences in having intimate conversations with their children, and any difficulties they may encounter in such communication. The paper offers recommendations for a CSE course architecture that is relevant to the context of Belarus and meets parental expectations, as well as on perspectives for advancing sexuality education in Belarus.

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Research Article Tue, 27 Jun 2023 22:34:46 +0300
The effect of the removal of regional anti-COVID restrictive measures on the dynamics of applications for unemployment benefits in Russia https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/90445/ Population and Economics 7(2): 1-22

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.7.e90445

Authors: Olga V. Suchkova, Anna Y. Stavniychuk, Georgy Y. Kalashnov, Alexandra A. Osavolyuk

Abstract: This paper assesses changes in the dynamics of applications for unemployment benefits in response to the abolition of regional restrictive measures during the first wave of COVID-19 spread in Russia. This assessment is interesting from the perspective of developing anti-crisis support measures for the population. The assessment is based on weekly-regional panel data using the staggered difference-in-differences method. After the lifting of restrictive measures, the number of new applications for unemployment benefits does not decrease significantly. The result remains robust when an alternative measure of the stringency of restrictions is used, such as an indicator for the validity period of digital passes instead of data on the stages of lifting restrictions. A comparison of official data on the effect of restrictive measures with the Yandex self-isolation index is provided.

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Research Article Tue, 27 Jun 2023 14:06:30 +0300
The impact of transition to a remote work format on the mental health of employees https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/90505/ Population and Economics 7(1): 54-76

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.7.e90505

Authors: Marina O. Gorshkova, Polina S. Lebedeva

Abstract: The subject of employee mental well-being has recently been discussed in the Russian corporate world and now it is a hot topic. According to the survey results, most domestic companies consider the problem of employee burnout to be important and recognize its negative impact on the staff, while over half are reluctant to do anything about it. However, for those companies that started thinking about implementing employee psychological wellness programs before 2019, the pandemic accelerated the process. The purpose of our study is to identify the causal relationship between the shift to remote working in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic and the mental state of workers. In-depth interviews with HR managers of the Russian branches of six large international companies and econometric analysis were used in this work. The research reveals that the abrupt shift to work from home (WFH) had a negative impact on employee mental state, which forced the companies to promptly implement new measures to support their workers. Over time, the staff was able to adapt to the new environment, and the opposite effect was observed: during the subsequent waves, those who were at WFH felt more psychologically stable compared to those transferred to a remote format later.

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Research Note Fri, 28 Apr 2023 16:10:13 +0300
An Econometric Assessment of the “Punishment” for Singlehood in Russia: Risks or New Opportunities in Life? https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/89168/ Population and Economics 7(1): 33-53

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.7.e89168

Authors: Rafael A. Akhtemzyanov

Abstract: The paper focuses on the effect of having a marriage partner on health and well-being of Russians as compared with their single compatriots. The health status variation between those who are married and those who are single can be explained both by the protective effect of marriage and marriage selection. Using the Cox proportional hazards model on the self-perceived health data from the RLMS 2004-2019 individual questionnaire, while controlling for socioeconomic factors, lifestyle, and living arrangements, we have found that the protective effect of marriage is non‑existent in men, except for a short-term impact of marital transitions. Women are “punished” for their singlehood due to a lack of a partner in their young age, or being in an unregistered union, or the loss of a breadwinner spouse at the age of 50 to 64. In contrast, women over 65 benefit from singlehood.

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Research Article Mon, 27 Mar 2023 18:03:18 +0300
The effect of creating a single EAEU labor market on the level of financial well-being of migrant households (exemplified by the Republic of Armenia) https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/87175/ Population and Economics 7(1): 1-32

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.7.e87175

Authors: Valeriia G. Oksinenko

Abstract: The article analyzes the effect of creating a single EAEU labor market on the financial well-being of households in countries that mainly send migrants, exemplified by the Republic of Armenia. Based on data of the Integrated Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) 2012-2017 and using the difference-in-differences method, the study has identified a significant causal relationship between the country’s accession to the EAEU and reduced income gap between households with migrants in Russia and households with migrants in other countries and regions or without migrants at all. Thus, after Armenia’s accession to the EAEU, income of the households sending migrants to Russia became 6-11% higher than the one of the households sending migrants to other countries, despite the fact that until 2015 there was hardly any difference in income; the income gap with the households without migrants decreased from 6% in 2012-2014 to 2% in 2015-2016. The confirmed positive impact of Armenia’s accession to the EAEU makes it possible to consider it a tool for reducing poverty in the Republic of Armenia as well as recommend to continue development and harmonization of the labor migration policy of the EAUE member states.

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Research Article Mon, 27 Mar 2023 18:02:03 +0300
Reproductive birth control after the coronavirus pandemic https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/90355/ Population and Economics 6(4): 178-188

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e90355

Authors: Nina E. Rusanova

Abstract: Changes in measures and instruments of birth control are one of the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic in all countries with increased significance of reproductive components, i.e. concerning physiological capabilities of conception, gestation and childbirth. Pandemic-associated measures had diverse impacts on restrictive (aimed at reducing fertility) and expansionary (aimed at increasing fertility) methods of reproductive regulation: it did not take methods of pregnancy prevention and artificial termination of pregnancy long to adapt to the new conditions without changing the established trends, while assisted reproductive technologies, following administrative bans of the first days of mass lockdowns, demonstrated new development directions upon removal of bans. Against the background of the progress in the medical component, increasingly bringing in- vitro fertilization closer to natural conception, the scale of state funding and the number of free of charge programs for patients have increased, however, due to anti-epidemic control, cross-border reproductive care or fertility tourism, relevant for surrogacy and reproductive donation, has become more complicated. In Russia, this has intensified public discussions and contributed to further elaboration of reproductive legislation.

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Research Note Sat, 31 Dec 2022 15:28:58 +0200
COVID-19 and fertility intentions: a qualitative study in six regions of Russia https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/93480/ Population and Economics 6(4): 107-122

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e93480

Authors: Konstantin I. Kazenin

Abstract: The paper discusses results of a qualitative study conducted in May-June 2021 in six regions of Russia (Astrakhan region, Republic of Bashkortostan, Republic of Kalmykia, Republic of Karachay-Cherkessia, Tomsk region and Yaroslavl region) with the purpose to identify opinions on impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility. Focus groups were held in these regions among childless respondents aged below 35. This allowed to observe influence of the pandemic on intentions to become first-time parents which is critically important for fertility tendencies. Although the survey regions differed considerably by fertility rate and age-specific characteristics as well as by socio-cultural characteristics, key results of the focus groups were rather similar across regions. The respondents in all regions very strictly defined income levels necessary for having a child and also stressed out the need for parents to provide positive psychological conditions for their young off-springs. Assessing their abilities to become “high-quality” parents, the informants relied almost only on their own resources, not counting much upon assistance of elder relatives. Under these views, the pandemic was perceived as a serious obstacle for the “high-quality” parenthood. The informants did not expect the state measures of support for families with children to considerably soften this effect of the pandemic.

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Research Note Thu, 22 Dec 2022 08:00:03 +0200
Life and health of labor migrants from Central Asia in Russia in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/90370/ Population and Economics 6(4): 83-106

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e90370

Authors: Dmitry V. Poletaev

Abstract: The study contains data analysis on living conditions, information about COVID-19, housing conditions, health status and practice of testing labor migrants from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan in Russia for HIV and tuberculosis (TB) in the context of the pandemic by gender and country of citizenship. The empirical basis of estimates was made up of data from the 2020 survey of 900 labor migrants from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan living in Russia. The data analysis showed that the COVID-19 pandemic has worsened situation of the majority families of labor migrants from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan in Russia with wage reduction and psychological stress becoming the most significant difficulties (especially for female labor migrants). The Internet and online social networks were the main sources of information about COVID-19. Less than half of legally employed labor migrants from Kyrgyzstan used Compulsory health insurance (CHI) certificate, and they were less likely to undergo fluorographic examinations and HIV testing compared to labor migrants from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan (especially men). Most of the labor migrants from Central Asia in Russia did not pay enough attention to prevention and health maintenance and even deteriorated their health overextending themselves in Russia, as in the pre-COVID-19 period. Health problems either have developed or worsened, including due to unfavorable housing conditions. The study shows the need for improving access to and quality of medical services for labor migrants from Central Asia in Russia and modernizing mechanisms for informing migrants, including through digital environment and social networks. Monitoring of future changes in migration policy with due regard to new experience in migration management during the pandemic seems promising.

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Research Note Thu, 22 Dec 2022 08:00:02 +0200
Short-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment and income of the Russian population: which groups were affected the most? https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/90410/ Population and Economics 6(4): 21-42

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e90410

Authors: Marina A. Kartseva, Polina O. Kuznetsova

Abstract: The paper analyzes short-term factors of job loss, wage reduction and factors of household income reduction in Russia in the context of the coronavirus crisis. Panel data of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey - Higher School of Economics (RLMS-HSE) served as empirical basis of the study. According to the study results, the highest risks of job loss are registered among females, young employees, unskilled workers, workers without professional education, and workers with low wages. However, almost the only factor of wage reduction (in case of retained employment) is employment in the most affected industries. Household income prior to the pandemic is the key determinant of household income reduction – the higher the level of material wellbeing, the higher the risk of income reduction. Increased probability of income reduction is also reported for families with children. The study has confirmed the hypothesis about negative impact of vulnerable employment on employment and wages of individuals, as well as household income.

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Research Article Thu, 8 Dec 2022 09:48:47 +0200
Spread of COVID-19 in the Russian regions in 2020: factors of excess mortality https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/87739/ Population and Economics 6(4): 1-20

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e87739

Authors: Marina G. Kolosnitsyna, Mikhail Yu. Chubarov

Abstract: The paper identifies major factors associated with the pandemic spread in the Russian regions, using econometric models and nonlinear «Random Forest» models to assess their significance. The study is based on data of the Russian regions for March-December 2020, a balanced panel sample included 780 observations. Prevalence of the pandemic was estimated based on the excess mortality rate. The study has identified a positive relationship between excess mortality and the share of migrants and a negative relationship between excess mortality and the share of pensioners in the region. Importance of climatic factors has been confirmed: high temperatures, other things being equal, reduce excess mortality, while high humidity, on the contrary, increases it. Excess mortality is higher in the regions with lower population mobility. Mortality is higher in the regions with high per capita incomes and regions with significant unemployment. Vice versa, excess mortality is lower in the regions with better doctor and nurse staffing levels. The study results show that in case of repeated waves of the epidemic or emergence of new viruses, public health policy should be geographically differentiated. Priority should be given to epidemiological situation in the regions with humid climate and low temperatures, high incomes, intensive migration, and high unemployment rates. Significant investments in medical education, higher number of medical specialists and their more even distribution across regions are required. This approach turns out to be more effective in terms of reducing mortality rather than restrictions on population mobility.

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Research Article Tue, 6 Dec 2022 09:31:25 +0200
Consumption and labour income over the life cycle in Mali: A National Transfer Accounts approach https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/86738/ Population and Economics 6(3): 101-116

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e86738

Authors: Camille Guidime, Sadou Doumbo, Latif Dramani, Robert Dabou

Abstract: The paper analyses the consumption and production behaviour of the Mali’s population by age using the National Transfer Account approach and household surveys and macroeconomic data. It reveals that between the ages of 28 and 66, Malians generate a surplus of 1,620 billion XOF in 2017. This surplus covers only 46% of the social demand of those under 28 and over 66. Women are in deficit over their life cycle, in other words, their level of consumption remains higher than their level of labour income, given their late entry into the labour market. While women consume as much as men over part of the life cycle, they produce 22% of labour income. The results also show that in Mali the level of material well-being measured by consumption declines with age.

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Research Article Thu, 17 Nov 2022 10:09:31 +0200
Customer Value-Oriented Business Education in The Post-Covid Era: The Case of MBA Programs in Russia https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/84192/ Population and Economics 6(3): 59-79

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e84192

Authors: Valentina V. Gerasimenko, Aleksei N. Kurbatskii, Dina N. Kurkova

Abstract: Purpose of the research: The Covid pandemic has been a time of enormous challenges in the management of education, business education included. Transformation in education technologies has been accompanied by changes in consumer values, which education management and marketing should now focus on. This paper investigates factors and parameters involved in formation of perceived customer value with regard to MBA programmes, using experience of e-learning during the Covid-19 pandemic. Methods: To attain the stated goal, survey-based qualitative and quantitative two-stage research was carried out. This involved MBA students at leading Moscow universities who were studying online during the pandemic in 2020–2021 and for whom part-time learning suddenly turned into online learning for the whole period of study. Key results: The research tested the significance of a theoretical approach to educational values (seen as an array of functional, epistemic, social and emotional values), to be integrated into MBA programmes by educational management. The findings revealed the parameters which currently determine the content of each of these four groups of values in MBA programmes, indicating that the structure of programme choice has already been formed. During the pandemic, the most significant parameters of online education market development have been the reputation of the university, the reputation and e-content of the MBA programme, flexible organization of the study process (based on e-technologies) and the availability of an online educational platform. Quantitative analysis enabled the authors to form a mathematical model of integral consumer assessment of usefulness, taking into account the combination of education value factors and their significance for various sociodemographic groups. The findings proved our hypothesis about the significant dependence between sociodemographic characteristics of MBA students and what they value the most, which needs to be taken into account in knowledge management. This outcome can provide a compass for e-learning knowledge as it points to the most relevant direction: clusterization while positioning business education programmes, and implementation of flexible individual e-learning paths when planning educational content.

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Research Article Wed, 9 Nov 2022 17:39:38 +0200
Women and youth unemployment in Western Balkans with particular focus on Kosovo https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/76973/ Population and Economics 6(3): 35-58

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e76973

Authors: Ajtene Avdullahi, Vjosa Fejza Ademi, Besmir Salihu, Arif Krasniqi

Abstract: Using the secondary data from Eurostat, World Bank, SEE Jobs Gateway Database and Kosovo Agency of Statistics labour source survey results the authors investigate female and youth unemployment as well as the level of inactivity in the labour market of Western Balkans with a particular focus on Kosovo. The results indicate that in Kosovo the unemployment rate remains the highest among Western Balkan countries. Whereas the unemployment rate of women and youth in Kosovo is even higher, presenting one of the main challenges and concerns for the country. The authors conclude by providing recommendations, which include implementing appropriate policies in order to decrease the unemployment rate, and the share of economically inactive women and youth by encouraging them to register as active job seekers or attend entrepreneurship training to gain the knowledge and skills needed to start a business.

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Research Article Tue, 8 Nov 2022 18:32:50 +0200
Job change in the conditions of precarious work (on the example of the Republic of Bashkortostan permanent residents) https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/78162/ Population and Economics 6(3): 15-34

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e78162

Authors: Marcel S. Turakayev

Abstract: Job and profession change are basic forms of social and labour mobility. Unstable working conditions are typical for less developed in socio-economic terms regions. The purpose of the study is to identify the degree of influence of precarious employment and other socio-demographic and economic factors on the probability of job change among Bashkortostan residents. The empirical basis of the study is a sociological survey of the Republic of Bashkortostan population. According to the results obtained, such factors as working in a private enterprise, self-employment, short work experience and the presence of a temporary employment contract increase the likelihood of job change. Income satisfaction, official wage and the absence of credit debt reduce the probability of job change. Respondents who want to improve their level of education and qualifications, as well as those who do not work within their specialty, tend to change their place of work more often. The conducted research has shown that changing a job, as a rule, does not contribute to improving the financial situation and working conditions of respondents.

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Research Article Tue, 8 Nov 2022 18:21:07 +0200
Population mortality in the central Russia municipalities https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/84005/ Population and Economics 6(3): 1-14

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e84005

Authors: Timur A. Fattakhov, Anna A. Mironova

Abstract: The Central Federal District (CFD) is the most populous district in Russia, as of the beginning of 2021, 27% of the Russian population lived out there. However, the CFD mortality rate is characterized by a significant variation across different territories of the District. The purpose of this study is to assess the CFD territorial differentiation of mortality rate based on life expectancy with a breakdown on municipalities in 2010-2019. Life expectancy by CFD municipality and urban district was based on information about population size of the CDF municipalities and urban districts, obtained from the database on municipalities for the period 2010-2020 and individual non-personalized Rosstat (Federal State Statistics Service) data on cause-of-death mortality. A total of 326 municipalities and 63 urban districts were included in the analysis. A total of 11.5 thousand life tables were developed. The analysis shows a significant differentiation of mortality rate at the municipal level. Even though the CFD life expectancy is above the Russian average mainly due to high levels of life expectancy in Moscow, the vast majority of the CFD municipalities report a life expectancy below the Russian average. The worst situation with mortality in the CFD is developed in municipalities with a population of less than 10 thousand people. The main factor for a high gap in life expectancy across territories and gender is a high male mortality in working ages. There are significant reserves of for life expectancy growth within the CFD. These reserves are concentrated in the regional capitals with adjacent municipalities, as well as other large municipalities with a population over 100 thousand people.

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Research Article Fri, 30 Sep 2022 16:28:46 +0300
Male fertility in the 19th century: the case of the Moscow merchant class https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/91138/ Population and Economics 6(2): 144-152

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e91138

Authors: Irina A. Troitskaya, Alexandre A. Avdeev

Abstract: The article presents estimates of male fertility among the Moscow merchants in 1850-1858: it assesses the impact of specific marital behavior of male merchants on fertility rates, defines the limits of the male reproductive age, and considers the contribution of infant and child mortality to the formation of family structure. Skazki (household lists) of the 10th revision of the Moscow merchants served the data source. The analysis showed that late marriage with low definitive celibacy of the Moscow male merchants and a significant age difference between spouses is combined with relatively high rates of male fertility at the age of over 50. The total fertility rate for the period under study exceeds five children per man.

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Research Note Thu, 8 Sep 2022 17:46:52 +0300
First names given in France, 1800–2019: a window into the process of individualization https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/81580/ Population and Economics 6(2): 108-119

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e81580

Authors: Jean-François Mignot

Abstract: What can first names tell us about populations of the past, as well as our present day? This article uses the number and distribution of first names given to newborns in France from 1800 to 2019 as an indicator of the degree of individualization, i.e. parents’ willingness to give their child a unique identity and to make others regard it as unique. Newborns receive more distinct names, from fewer than 2,000 names per year in the 1900s, compared to more than 13,000 per year since 2010. Fewer newborns are given one of the Top-10 most frequently given names of the decade, from 65% of newborns in 1810–1819 to 10% in 2010–2019. Fashion for first names has been also changing more quickly since the early 20th century, i.e., the most popular names currently remain in fashion for a shorter period of time. Overall, in France as elsewhere in the West and in the world, more and more parents are choosing for their children – particularly for their daughters – relatively new, distinctive and individualizing names. The analysis of first names can thus help social scientists, including historical demographers, measure the process of individualization and compare it across countries – a task that has been notoriously difficult to this day.

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Research Article Thu, 8 Sep 2022 17:46:52 +0300
Patterns of population decline following European contact and colonization: The cases of Tahiti and the Marquesas https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/81900/ Population and Economics 6(2): 88-107

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e81900

Authors: Jean-Louis Rallu

Abstract: Recent archaeological data assess that Tahiti and the Marquesas Islands were densely populated at contact with the Europeans and then experienced a tremendous decline. This phenomenon is most often attributed to epidemics, while a steady negative increase is rarely mentioned. This paper shows that the population of Tahiti was most probably around 110,000 – or even reached 180,000 – at contact, based on a retrodiction from the 1881 census using data on epidemic mortality and annual decline rates observed in the second half of the nineteenth century in Tahiti, the Marquesas, and other Eastern Polynesian islands in similar situations, according to missionary, administrative, and medical reports. Our ‘model’, or reconstitution, provides estimates on the impact of both types of mortality. Due to no exposure to childhood and other diseases common on the continents, the Polynesians had low immunity, as shown by age-specific death rates until the 1918 flu and the 1951 measles epidemics. Following the European contact, sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), tuberculosis (TB), and other introduced infectious diseases resulted in a steady population decline due to reduced birth rates and very high death rates. Health services were available for the Europeans soon after the takeover, however the natives got access to health services much later with their sporadic and fragmental provision. The constant negative increase extended far beyond the colonial period, including after effective drugs were discovered in the 1880s, becoming the main contributor to the overall demographic decline in the Marquesas, where health services were missing most of the time before 1924, mostly in the South-Eastern group.

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Research Article Tue, 2 Aug 2022 15:03:08 +0300
Urban fertility in Russia in 1859-1913: on commencement of demographic transition https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/83642/ Population and Economics 6(2): 1-13

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e83642

Authors: Boris N. Mironov

Abstract: In the late Imperial period, a significant share of population of European Russia has demonstrated improved demographic indicators. The most important sign of demographic modernization is individual birth control. The available data suggest that transition from spontaneous fertility to the controlled one was first noted in St. Petersburg residents around the middle of the XIX century, disseminating among the entire urban population in the second half of the century, and extending to the rural population in the early twentieth century. Commencement of the demographic transition in Russia has been neglected by researchers for two reasons. First, demographic processes were studied country-wide, without any breakdown on urban and rural areas. With this approach, the urban population, accounting for only 10% in 1863 and 15% in 1914, blended with the general population; therefore, it was difficult to understand specifics of its reproduction. Second, age-specific and total fertility rates were not included in the analysis.

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Review Article Fri, 1 Jul 2022 20:02:27 +0300
Economic specialization and demographic development of settlements in the Northern region https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/81561/ Population and Economics 6(2): 14-34

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e81561

Authors: Andrey V. Smirnov, Uliana V. Lytkina

Abstract: The article is devoted to the analysis of impact of economic specialization of settlements in the northern mining region on their demographic dynamics. The object of the study is 58 urban and 725 rural settlements of the Komi Republic in 1897-2020. Use of highly detailed data made it possible to identify spatial and sectoral patterns in demographic development of the settlements. The authors have proposed periodization of economic and demographic development of the Komi Republic in the XX-XXI centuries based on production structure and population movement. The study has identified specifics of demographic dynamics in settlements specialized in coal mining, natural gas and oil production, timber, transportation and multifunctional settlements in northern Russia. The authors show that relationship between the volume of production and demographic dynamics varies depending on the settlement specialization. The relationship between the population size and phase of the natural resource extraction cycle is most pronounced in coal mining settlements. As to rural settlements, in addition to economic specialization, the dominant ethnic group was taken into account. The study shows that the smallest outflow of population is registered in agricultural settlements, as well as settlements with Komi being the dominant ethnic group or settlements with mixed ethnic composition. Impact of spatial remoteness of northern settlements on population size in different time periods has been determined. The results obtained make it possible to predict future changes in population distribution in the northern and Arctic regions.

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Research Article Fri, 1 Jul 2022 15:32:22 +0300
Comparing intraregional trends of demographic development in the Russian Near North (on the example of Arkhangelsk, Vologda, and Kostroma Oblasts) https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/79253/ Population and Economics 6(1): 109-122

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e79253

Authors: Denis N. Mokrensky

Abstract: The article compares intraregional trends in demographic development of the old-developed territories of the Russian Near North: Arkhangelsk, Vologda, and Kostroma Oblasts. The author identifies trends in the fertility, mortality, and migration in 2011—2019 basing on the statistical indicators characterizing the demographic situation in municipal entities and urban districts of the old-developed areas in these regions. A comparative analysis of the demographic dynamic in the three regions confirmed the well-known conclusions about depopulation, urbanization, and migration loss in most municipalities. Steady depopulation was observed in medium-sized and small cities, including in municipal centers, where the inflow of population from the nearest periphery is decreasing. The further away from Moscow the region is, the higher the growth rate of the urban population and the rate of decline in the rural population.

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Research Note Mon, 9 May 2022 15:05:22 +0300
Do economic inequalities impact demographic dividend: Evidence from India https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/76490/ Population and Economics 6(1): 80-108

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e76490

Authors: Muttur R. Narayana

Abstract: The paper offers a new explanation and prediction of empirical relationship between income and consumption inequalities and demographic dividend. The framework for the analysis is a modified National Transfer Accounts (NTA)-based modelling of the first demographic dividend with inequality-adjusted or inequality-discounted economic support ratio (ESR). The model is tested for India by calculating the inequality-adjusted demographic dividend (or the growth rate of ESR) for the period 2005-2050. The results show that income inequality is not higher than consumption one for all ages and these age-specific economic inequalities have remarkable effects on (i) lowering the observed age-specific distribution of labour income for select ages and consumption for all ages and (ii) reducing the size and duration of demographic dividend due to lower growth rate of ESR. In addition, income inequality effects are found to be stronger than consumption inequality effects in terms of reducing the size of demographic dividend. These results imply that (a) growth effects of the first demographic dividend are upward-biased if unadjusted for the economic inequalities; (b) attainment of goals and targets of the reduction in inequalities under UN-SDGs 2030 by redistributive economic policies are contributory to the maximization of economic growth through the first demographic dividend; and (c) economic inequalities do impact the size and duration of demographic dividend. Subject to the availability of data, the modified approach to the first demographic dividend calculation in this paper is of relevance for comparative studies between India and other countries to draw lessons from mutual experiences and to establish the generality of results.

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Research Article Mon, 9 May 2022 12:24:07 +0300
Methodology for Monitoring the Mobility of Circular Labour Migrants in Moscow Region https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/77308/ Population and Economics 6(1): 1-13

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e77308

Authors: Yulia Yu. Shitova

Abstract: The paper presents the original author’s methodology for monitoring commuting labour migration in a region on the example of Moscow Region. The methodology is based on regular collection of real-time information from the Yandex.Probki platform on the regional transport network state by querying and saving travel time for a fixed set of car routes (basic sample) covering the region under study. An analysis of the data collected over the past two years enabled studying the structure and dynamics of travel time losses by commuting labour migrants. The time dynamics of losses are sensitive to events such as lockdowns and holidays. The estimates obtained show a stable cyclicity of travel time losses within a day and a week, which confirms the validity of the indicator proposed by the author. The study demonstrates that the loss of time on the commute during peak hours is 2.5 times higher than the loss when driving without traffic jams. In conclusion, the paper discusses the prospects for scaling the author’s methodology to any regions in which the Yandex.Probki platform is present.

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Research Article Thu, 31 Mar 2022 18:31:07 +0300
Does the value of human life in Russia increase with age and higher levels of education? https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/79796/ Population and Economics 6(1): 62-79

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e79796

Authors: Ekaterina A. Zubova

Abstract: Estimates of the value of life, reflecting society’s preferences regarding the choice between safety and money, are key indicators for state management in areas such as healthcare, transport, demographic policy, and environmental protection. This article is a logical continuation of the previous research presenting the initial estimates of the value of life in Russia based on analysis of the revealed preferences about employment in industries associated with high fatality risks. In addition to the previous results, this study provides a new theoretical model explaining the logic of choosing employment considering fatality risks and offers estimates of the value of life across educational and age groups. The empirical part of the paper is based on the RLMS HSE data for the period from 2010 to 2020; the author uses panel regression with random effects. The analysis shows that the average value of life in Russia is 287 million rubles, varying from 241 to 450 million rubles depending on levels of education achieved, and considering age value of life ranges from 329 to 349 million rubles (in those groups for which estimates are significant). Possible explanations for this variability are related to the human capital factor, which changes with age and education level. At the same time, the impact of human capital on the value of life can be both positive and negative.

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Research Article Thu, 31 Mar 2022 16:20:49 +0300
Fertility-Household Credit Burden Nexus at the Present Stage https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/76066/ Population and Economics 6(1): 36-61

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e76066

Authors: Ilya N. Gurov, Elena Yu. Kulikova

Abstract: The article examines the relationship between fertility and household credit burden using data for 79 countries for the period from 1990 to 2019. The authors identify 9 patterns describing the mutual influence of fertility and household debt burden. The analysis of patterns shows that the presence of a significant positive impact of households’ mortgage debt burden on fertility in future periods may indicate both a direct causal relationship between the indicators and the adoption of conditional decisions on pregnancy planning prior to obtaining mortgage loans to improve housing conditions. The same is true for households’consumer credit burden, as well as for quantitative estimates of the impact of fertility growth on households’ debt burden in subsequent periods. The article shows that in developed and developing countries, the growth of the total fertility rate is positively associated with the subsequent dynamics of mortgage and consumer loans in relation to GDP. In developed countries, the growth of mortgage and consumer loans is positively associated with the subsequent fertility dynamics. In developing countries, an increase in mortgage loans is positively but insignificantly correlated with fertility in the following years, while an increase in consumer loans leads to an increase in fertility in the short term, and to its decrease in subsequent years. The results indicate that success in demographic policy aimed at increasing fertility will be accompanied by the growth of households’debt burden, and therefore in subsequent periods households will be forced to pay interest and repay the principal debt, which will reduce families’ ability to finance children’s education. In this regard, state programmes that provide free education and development of children should be conducted in parallel with the implementation of demographic policy aimed at increasing fertility.

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Research Article Thu, 31 Mar 2022 15:47:26 +0300
Long-term dynamics of informal employment and its relationship with the poverty of the Russian population against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/78235/ Population and Economics 6(1): 14-35

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e78235

Authors: Svetlana S. Biryukova, Oksana V. Sinyavskaya, Daria E. Kareva

Abstract: The study aims at assessing the prevalence of informal employment in the Russian labour market and evaluating its relationship with the risks of monetary poverty. Empirically, the study bases on the data of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS HSE) for 2000-2020. Calculations have shown that over the past 20 years, on average, about a quarter of Russian employees were included in the informal labour market for their main or secondary employment. The results of the study provide some evidence on the existence of several zones of informality in the Russian labour market, in which there are different motives for deformalization, in particular: low-skilled employment in the informal sector, employment only in the format of informal part-time / side jobs (“casual employment”) and partial departure to the informal sector while maintaining an official employment contract at the main place of work. Employment with part or all of the pay for the main job received informally — that is, without a formal contract or with declared wages below the actual wage received, in violation of current regulations — is more common among men, young people and people of early working age, and as well as citizens with education below vocational secondary. At the same time, women, people aged 30–49, and citizens with vocational secondary education predominate in the structure of informally employed, although with a slight preponderance. Regression analysis shows that there is a statistically significant relationship between involvement in the informal labour market and the risks of monetary poverty: fully informal employment in 2019 is associated with higher chances of the respondent’s household falling into poverty, and with lower chances in 2020.

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Research Article Thu, 31 Mar 2022 13:34:41 +0300
Relationship between vulnerability and life satisfaction in older population in Russia https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/73669/ Population and Economics 5(4): 66-92

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e73669

Authors: Victoria V. Fokina

Abstract: The article examines the relationship between various components of vulnerability and life satisfaction among older people in Russia. Empirically, the study bases on data from the first wave of the WHO Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) for 2007–2010. The analysis showed that physical vulnerability, or frailty, is associated with a significantly lower level of life satisfaction of the older population. At the same time, there are differences in this relationship between age groups, and an increase in the physical vulnerability of individuals aged 75–89 years old reduces their subjective well-being to a greater extent in comparison with the group of individuals aged 60–74 years old. The financial situation of individuals also plays a significant role: lack of income to cover daily needs negatively affects subjective well-being. Socializing with friends is another predictor of life satisfaction in older age.

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Research Article Fri, 31 Dec 2021 10:23:04 +0200
Pregnancy, childbirth and health of female labour migrants from Central Asia in Russia https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/73815/ Population and Economics 5(4): 50-65

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e73815

Authors: Dmitry V. Poletaev

Abstract: The research note contains an analysis of data on health, pregnancy, and childbirth experience among female labour migrants arriving in Russia from Central Asia. Empirically, the study bases on the data of three surveys conducted in 2015, 2017, and 2020. In total, the surveys contain information on 2,028 migrants from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan living in Russia. The analysis proves that with gradual feminization of labour migration from Central Asia, pregnancy and childbirth in a significant part of labour migrants take place in risky living conditions; the existing system of maternal health protection for migrants in Russia needs modernization. Compared to earlier studies on this topic, the survey data showed a higher proportion of female migrants who had got pregnant and gave birth in Russia along with a lower proportion of migrants who terminated pregnancy. These differences may indicate a change in the reproductive behaviour of women who come to work in Russia from the countries of Central Asia. The presented note shows the need for in-depth studies of the reproductive behaviour of labour migrants in Russia, as well as the development of national migration statistics, which should become gender sensitive.

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Research Note Wed, 29 Dec 2021 15:35:30 +0200
Socio-demographic determinants of COVID-19 vaccine uptake in Russia in the context of mandatory vaccination of employees https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/77832/ Population and Economics 5(4): 30-49

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e77832

Authors: Tatiana M. Maleva, Marina A. Kartseva, Sophia V. Korzhuk

Abstract: The paper offers an analysis of socio-demographic factors determining uptake of COVID-19 vaccine in Russia in 2021. The study focuses in particular on the role of mandatory vaccination of workers in certain sectors of the economy. The study is empirically based on three rounds of a nationally representative telephone survey, conducted in February–October 2021, which investigated the situation and behaviour of a cross section of the Russian adult population in the context of the spread of coronavirus. The paper shows that the key factors behind vaccine uptake are age and education of the individual. People in older age groups and people with higher education are most inclined towards vaccination. By contrast, young people and people with low levels of education are least likely to be vaccinated. Other significant determinants of vaccination are experience of COVID-19 infection (self or a household member) and elderly or chronically ill members of the household. Among the employed, the economic sector where they work is an important determinant: workers in education, health care, and state and municipal administration are more likely to be vaccinated. The introduction of mandatory vaccination at a firm/organization with sanctions for unvaccinated employees has significant positive effect: the likelihood of an employee being vaccinated increases by 10 percentage points. The effect of mandatory vaccination is slightly greater for men than for women.

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Research Article Mon, 27 Dec 2021 16:53:39 +0200
Diagnostic and age composition of excess mortality associated with the New Year holidays in Russia https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/72550/ Population and Economics 5(4): 1-20

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e72550

Authors: Alexander V. Nemtsov, Timur A. Fattakhov

Abstract: Statistics show that in many countries of the world holidays are associated with an increase in morbidity and mortality; this is especially pronounced during the New Year and Christmas period. This article presents an estimate of the excess number of deaths in Russia during the January holidays in 2011–2019 by main classes of causes of death and by age groups. The study relies on the Rosstat dataset of 16.83 million individual non-personalized death records referring to 2011–2019. The authors of the paper estimate excess mortality for each cause and age group as the difference between actually observed mortality and the LOWESS moving average calculated for non-holiday period, extrapolated to the holidays. The calculations showed that the period of excess mortality lasted from January 1 to January 22 with a maximum on January 1. Over 22 days, excess mortality in 2011–2019 amounted to 89.0 thousand cases or 8.4% in relation to mortality on non-holidays; excess mortality on January 1 amounted to 11.4 thousand cases. In contrast to mortality from diseases of the circulatory, respiratory, and digestive systems, the contribution of which to excess mortality was proportional to their prevalence on non-holidays, proportion of excess mortality from external causes almost doubled (23.6% versus 12.7 % on weekdays). January 1 saw the highest excess mortality from external causes, including that of alcohol poisoning, homicide, and suicide, in all age groups; on January 2 the highest increase was observed in mortality from diseases of the circulatory system; on January 9 and 10 — from the pathologies of the respiratory and digestive systems. January holidays in Russia are associated with significant excess mortality, primarily as a result of the abuse of strong alcoholic beverages. Informing the population about the fatal consequences of such a consumption regime and a decrease in the availability of strong alcohol, the maximum sales of which falls on December, can reduce the damage during the January holidays.

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Research Article Wed, 8 Dec 2021 20:09:06 +0200
Database of digital media publications on maternal (family) capital in Russia in 2006–2019 https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/78723/ Population and Economics 5(4): 1-29

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e78723

Authors: Irina E. Kalabikhina, Herman A. Klimenko, Evgeny P. Banin, Ekaterina K. Vorobyeva, Anna D. Lameeva

Abstract: The database contains data from publications of digital Russian-language media registered in the Russian Federation on the topic of maternity capital published in the period from May 10, 2006 to June 30, 2019. The database includes general data on publications on maternity capital in .csv formats (UTF-8 encoding). Full texts of publications are presented in .xml format. A specialized request was generated for the aggregator of publications of Russian-language digital mass media public.ru. In total, the database consists of 457,888 publications of 7,665 publishing houses from 1,251 settlements located in 85 regions of Russia. The database includes information about the date and type of publication, publisher, place of publication (municipality), texts about maternity capital, and numbers of unique positive, negative, and neutral words and phrases according to the RuSentiLex2017 dictionary, as well as full texts of publications.

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Data Paper Wed, 8 Dec 2021 12:30:41 +0200
The impact of economic and demographic events in the biography of Russians on the level of their life satisfaction https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/72298/ Population and Economics 5(3): 1-23

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e72298

Authors: Oksana V. Kuznetsova

Abstract: The article examines anticipation and adaptation effects in relation to life satisfaction in case of economic (related to labour market) and demographic events in people’s lives. The author estimates how individuals feel in the vicinity of significant life events and tracks the asymmetry of results for women and men. The calculations are based on panel data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey for the period 2004–2019. Using pooled regression and the difference-in-differences approach, the author tests the hypothesis that men are more sensitive to economic events while women are more sensitive to demographic ones. The results indicate that there is no consistent asymmetry of effects for men and women. On average, citizens of Russia tend to anticipate events that will happen to them in the next three years. Generally, Russians do not adapt to new conditions after economic events, however, this does not apply to individual demographic shocks.

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Research Article Thu, 30 Sep 2021 23:23:34 +0300
Contraceptive method mix in the context of family planning programmes in developing countries https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/70669/ Population and Economics 5(3): 56-75

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e70669

Authors: Lilia V. Boglaeva

Abstract: The paper examines the formation of the contraceptive method mix within the framework of family planning programmes in developing countries, taking into account the influence of socio-demographic, economic, and behavioural factors. The study has shown that the impact of family planning programmes on changes in the method mix is ambiguous and depends on the time of the start of the programme, the region of the country, the level of medical service development, and other factors. The paper also analyzes the correlation between the peculiarities of the method mix in a country and abolishment of particular methods. The author reveals that in developing countries the poorest users of young reproductive age are the most vulnerable and prone to contraception discontinuation. It is these population groups that experience the most dissatisfaction with family planning.

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Research Article Thu, 30 Sep 2021 16:27:40 +0300
Impact of unemployment by sex and marriage rate on fertility decline: Estimates for Turkey and Greece using CCR model https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/69189/ Population and Economics 5(3): 76-89

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e69189

Authors: Goran Miladinov

Abstract:  The article analyses the effect of unemployment by sex and marriage rate on fertility changes in Greece and Turkey. The empirical part of the study is based on annual time series data retrieved from the World Bank and National Statistical Offices of Turkey and Greece for 1991–2019. Canonical Cointegrating Regression model is applied for the two countries separately, allowing to quantify the effects of the determinants (crude marriage rate and unemployment rate by sex) on the variation of fertility rate. CCR models show these determinants to be the most significant factors of fertility dynamics in both countries. The results from Engle-Granger and the Phillips-Ouliaris tau (t-statistics) tests confirm the cointegration, i.e., long-term relationship between the variables only for Turkey’s CCR model. However, it was found that in Greece, female unemployment impacts fertility rate negatively and male unemployment has a positive effect on fertility rate; for Turkey modelling shows the opposite relationship. The results of the study suggest that economic uncertainties might be one of the factors contributing to fertility decline in these countries, long-term or in the coming years.

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Research Article Thu, 30 Sep 2021 11:46:44 +0300
Database “Childfree (antinatalist) communities in the social network VKontakte” https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/70786/ Population and Economics 5(2): 92-96

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e70786

Authors: Irina E. Kalabikhina, Evgeny P. Banin

Abstract: The database contains an upload of text comments in Russian from the social network VKontakte in .csv format (UTF-8 encoding). The comments are collected from communities, which discuss pregnancy, childhood, motherhood, paternity, etc. The upload contains comments under the posts with which the interaction took place. The absolute amount of likes is used as a criterion (comments are collected where the number of likes is greater than or equal to 5). The text data is processed (stemmization and lemmatization). The data are suitable for thematic analysis (e.g. LDA — Latent Dirichlet Allocation), sentiment analysis of statements, modelling the graph structure of communities (the link_comment variable contains a unique identifier of the post, link_author contains a unique user identifier), and forming a dictionary of demographic connotation in Russian. Sentiment analysis of statements enables measuring the dynamics of «demographic temperature» in antinatalist communities. The database is a supplement to the publication Kalabikhina IE, Banin EP (2020) Database «Pro-family (pronatalist) communities in the social network VKontakte». Population and Economics 4(3): 98–130. https://doi.org/10.3897/popecon.4.e60915.

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Data Paper Tue, 27 Jul 2021 10:54:31 +0300
Fertility dynamics and reproductive behaviour of men and women entering into marriage in the Republic of Bashkortostan https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/64858/ Population and Economics 5(2): 55-75

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e64858

Authors: Yana A. Skryabina

Abstract: The article is devoted to the analysis of the fertility rate dynamics in the Republic of Bashkortostan and the study of the reproductive behaviour of the population entering into a registered marriage. The author examines the crude and total fertility rates, the net population reproduction rate, the total fertility rate by the order of births, as well as age-specific fertility rates. In addition, basing on the data of population surveys, the author regards reproductive intentions of citizens applying for marriage in the registry office, as well as reasons that may prevent them from having a child. The study shows that the Republic of Bashkortostan is characterized by a low fertility rate; the generation of children does not replace the generation of parents. The reproductive intentions of the respondents measured by the desired and expected number of children correspond to the small (two-child) family model. Among the main reasons that can prevent the birth of a child, the first two are financial and housing difficulties, and third is the desire to live for oneself for a while.

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Research Article Wed, 30 Jun 2021 18:23:47 +0300
Features and factors of demographic dynamics in the Kyrgyz Republic https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/67183/ Population and Economics 5(2): 29-54

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e67183

Authors: Alexandre A. Avdeev, Irina A. Troitskaya

Abstract: The article analyzes the current demographic situation in the Kyrgyz Republic, as well as the main components of population dynamics: natural population growth, internal mobility and international migration. Basing on census data, current statistics and population surveys, the authors assess the impact of demographic processes in the republic on the age and sex structure and the rate of ageing of the Kyrgyz population, as well as on population settlement and its concentration in the centres of attraction of internal migrants, and the urbanization process. Analysis of demographic dynamics in the Kyrgyz Republic has shown a number of interrelated problems and challenges caused by the rapid growth of the population and changes in its age structure, requiring urgent social and economic policy measures. Key of the revealed problems are mass departure of the population in the working age, especially young people (labour migration), growth of population of retirement age, and uneven population settlement with concentration around the two largest urban agglomerations of the republic, the cities of Bishkek and Osh.

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Research Article Wed, 30 Jun 2021 14:03:26 +0300
Fertility in the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/65207/ Population and Economics 5(1): 72-89

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e65207

Authors: Vladimir N. Arkhangelsky

Abstract: The article is devoted to the analysis of fertility indicators in the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug. Along with the total fertility rate for all births, the author traces the dynamics of birth order-specific fertility rates, as well as actual cohort fertility rates estimated by 2010 All-Russian census data. Particular attention is paid to the differences between these indicators in urban districts and municipal areas of the region. When considering the possible relationship of fertility indicators with the implementation of regional measures of demographic policy, special attention is paid to third and subsequent births, the level and dynamics of which can be influenced by the amount of regional maternal (family) capital, which is larger in the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug than in other federal subjects of Russia. The results of the analysis show that the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug is among regions with a relatively high level and a young model of fertility. To a greater extent, this manifests itself in the second, third and subsequent births.

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Research Article Fri, 9 Apr 2021 16:10:21 +0300
Specifics and prospects of the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug labour market in the context of economic and demographic development trends https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/65258/ Population and Economics 5(1): 49-71

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e65258

Authors: Oksana V. Kuchmaeva

Abstract: The paper studies peculiarities of formation and use of the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug labour potential. The purpose of the study is to identify the specifics of the situation in the regional labour market, its main determinants and development prospects, and to formulate proposals for employment policy corresponding to the peculiarities of the socio-demographic and economic situation. The paper is based on state labour statistics, municipal statistics, information of the Federal Register of Disabiled Persons, and the Rosstat population surveys data. To solve the research tasks the author uses methods of descriptive statistical analysis, as well as clustering methods in application to data characterizing tensions in the labour market of the municipalities of the region. The results of the analysis indicate the high role of migration in the formation of the labour potential of the region. Among the structural features of employment of the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug are a significant share of shift labour and a high proportion of migrants in the labour force, significant disparities in the structure of employed by economic activity and occupational group, as well as a small proportion of self-employed and entrepreneurs. The author concludes that the problems of the labour market act as an obstacle to the sustainable development of the region.

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Research Article Thu, 8 Apr 2021 13:54:41 +0300
Modern features and tendencies of population settlement in the Far Eastern regions of the Russian Far North https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/60443/ Population and Economics 5(1): 20-39

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e60443

Authors: Egor E. Chaika, Ulyana V. Mizerovskaya

Abstract: The article regards the tendencies in the population distribution in the Far Eastern part of the Russian Far North, taking into account both country-wide trends and specific features of northern territories. The analysis covers the period from 1989 to 2020, that is, from the the last Soviet census to the present moment. The authors analyze the dynamics of the population size and its distribution, identify weaknesses in the statistical assessment of the actual population of the northern territories, define trends in the population distribution, namely, reveal the permanent population concentration along the southern borders of the Far Northern part of the Far East and the development of shift workers’ settlements across the remaining territory. In conclusion, the article puts the population distribution dynamics in the Far Eastern part of the Far North into the context of the identified trends.

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Research Article Wed, 31 Mar 2021 09:40:35 +0300
Socioeconomic determinants of demographic development of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/57105/ Population and Economics 5(1): 1-19

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e57105

Authors: Ekaterina R. Barkova

Abstract: The study explores the peculiarities of demographic processes in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the socioeconomic factors determining them. The author tests hypotheses about the relationship of socioeconomic characteristics of the population with fertility and migration basing on data from 13 municipalities of the region for 2011–2017. The analysis reveals a statistically significant relationship between age-specific fertility rate for women aged 15–49 and such indicators as marriage and divorce rates, wages, the proportion of employed in the working-age population, the enrolment of children in preschool education, and the proportion of families who received housing or improved housing conditions among those registered in the housing program. Inbound migration rate is statistically related to wages, as well as to proportion of employed in the total working-age population, while outbound migration rate is linked to proportion of those employed in mining, as well as to indicators characterizing situation in the marriage market.

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Research Article Wed, 31 Mar 2021 09:19:34 +0300
Effect of inclusion of assisted reproductive technologies in the state health insurance programme in Russia https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/59062/ Population and Economics 4(4): 19-42

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.4.e59062

Authors: Alexandra A. Moskaleva

Abstract: Assisted reproductive technologies (ART) are an infertility treatment tool. In Russia, more than 250 centers implementing infertility treatment with the help of ART have been opened in 67 regions. In 2014, in vitro fertilization (IVF) was included in the programme of state guarantees, and since 2016 the service can be obtained within the Mandatory Health Insurance (MHI) system. Author of this study analyzes how the impact of economic factors on fertility with the use of ART has changed in relation to the inclusion of IVF in the MHI system, and what social factors affect the usage of this technology. The analysis bases on the panel data for the regions of Russia covering the period from 2011 to 2017. The fixed effects method was used to assess the impact of various factors. The study shows that the population income level has a significant positive impact on the proportion of births with the use of ART even after the inclusion of IVF into the MHI programme. At the same time, the inclusion of IVF in the MHI programme has led to an increase in the proportion of births using ART. The positive effect of this inclusion is higher in wealthier regions. Among social factors, a significant impact has the accessibility of information about the procedure, which is measured by the share of population having access to the Internet.

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Research Article Thu, 31 Dec 2020 21:21:12 +0200
Delegation of parenthood and language of reproduction: experts and patients on the birth of ART-children https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/57400/ Population and Economics 4(4): 43-56

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.4.e57400

Authors: Olga G. Isupova

Abstract: While understanding their positions on various ethical issues in the field of reproductive technologies, IVF patients form their own special language, not scientific, but rather vernacular, based on real experience. A group of women actively seeking procreation with modern biotechnologies remains somewhat conservative, focused on a traditional family. New concepts and terminology are particularly well-formed in their disputes over the use of reproductive donation. In general, what they articulate and advocate is consistent with concepts of bioethics that are also controversial – for some, the priority of genetic connectivity is unusually strong, while others deny its significance. The study bases on examining perceptions of reproductive donation by bioethics specialists presented in the literature and their comparison with the views of ART patients communicating on the Internet. The author uses qualitative discourse analysis and studies thematic discussions on the Probirka.ru website, which are devoted to the preferences of their participants in relation to reproductive donation, its acceptance or rejection. The study shows that patients’ positions are somewhat more extreme than the views of bioethics. For example, some participants practically deny the existence of genes, while others talk about the advantage of finding a child without using one’s own body. The author reveals different groups of patients, and more traditionally oriented women prefer to delegate the genetic part of parenthood to third parties and cannot refuse to bear pregnancy as they see it as a central part of female identity, while more modernized prefer to keep genetic connection if it is possible to refuse childbearing.

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Research Article Thu, 31 Dec 2020 17:01:39 +0200
Differentiation of Russian regions by life expectancy https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/61386/ Population and Economics 4(3): 104-110

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.4.e61386

Authors: Raisa S. Rotova

Abstract: The paper is devoted to the assessment of the relationship between regional life expectancy at birth (LE) with a number of economic and sociodemographic factors, in particular the gross regional product (GRP) and the share of urban population residing in large cities in the total population of the region. The analysis shows that the economic factor has a strong positive correlation with LE, especially in regions with unfavorable climatic conditions. The proportion of urban population residing in large cities in the total population of the region, influencing LE through improved health infrastructure and greater accessibility of health services to urban residents, merely complements the leading role of the economic factor.

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Research Note Fri, 18 Dec 2020 17:45:31 +0200
Database “Pro-family (pronatalist) communities in the social network VKontakte” https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/60915/ Population and Economics 4(3): 98-103

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.4.e60915

Authors: Irina E. Kalabikhina, Evgeny P. Banin

Abstract: The database contains uploading text comments from the social network VKontakte in .csv format (UTF-8 encoding). The comments are collected from communities discussing pregnancy, childhood, motherhood, etc. Uploading contains comments to posts with which the interaction took place. The absolute number of likes was used as a criterion (comments were collected where the number of likes is greater than or equal to 5). Text data was pre-processed (stemmization and lemmatization). The data is suitable for thematic analysis (e.g. LDA – Latent Dirichlet Allocation), for modelling the graph structure of communities (the link_comment variable contains a unique post identifier, link_author contains a unique user identifier), for analysis of tonalities of statements and formation of a dictionary of demographic connotation in Russian. Analysis of the tonalities of statements enables measuring the dynamics of “demographic temperature” in pro-family (pronatalist) communities.

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Data Paper Fri, 18 Dec 2020 09:55:04 +0200
A new book by Anatoly G. Vishnevsky https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/58939/ Population and Economics 4(3): 96-97

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.4.e58939

Authors: Vladimir J. Echenique

Abstract: Рецензия на новую книгу А.Г.Вишневского «Демографическая история и демографическая теория»

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Research Note Mon, 7 Dec 2020 17:09:50 +0200
Alcohol mortality in Russia: assessment with representative survey data https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/51653/ Population and Economics 4(3): 75-95

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.4.e51653

Authors: Polina O. Kuznetsova

Abstract: According to vast empirical evidence, excessive alcohol consumption is an important factor of premature mortality in Russia. At the same time, quantifying alcohol-related deaths is not so easy, as generally the discussion of alcohol mortality only concerns the causes of death attributed solely to alcohol, which significantly narrows the range of possible negative consequences. Including data on losses from myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease and other common cardiovascular and other diseases in alcohol mortality estimates is enabled by an approach using data on the relative risks of death from various causes depending on the type of alcohol consumption. Within this study, alcohol consumption, depending on sex and age, was assessed on data from a representative national survey, taking into account information on the volume of recorded sales of alcoholic beverages. According to the obtained results, in 2018 the death rate from alcohol-related causes in Russia amounted to 196,000 people, 146,000 men and 50,000 women among them. The peak of alcohol mortality is observed among people aged over 50. The structure of alcohol mortality is dominated by diseases of the cardiovascular system and external causes, and for men the contribution of external causes is significantly higher. Excessive alcohol consumption reduces life expectancy by 5.9 and 4.7 years for men and women, and healthy life expectancy by 4.2 and 2.6 years for men and women.

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Research Article Mon, 7 Dec 2020 16:21:49 +0200
Analysis of life satisfaction of the older population in Russia based on the RLMS-HSE microdata https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/56156/ Population and Economics 4(3): 57-74

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.4.e56156

Authors: Victoria V. Fokina, Rusudan I. Tsikaridze, Alice D. Dudareva, George A. Borisenko

Abstract: Presently, population ageing is one of the main demographic trends in developed countries, including Russia. The article analyzes changes in life satisfaction of individuals aged 45–72 and reflects the main factors influencing this indicator. The research method employed in the study is econometric analysis based on data of the 21st, 23rd, 25th and 27th rounds of the annual Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey – Higher School of Economics (RLMS-HSE). The analysis showed that such indicators as self-assessment of health, income, having a pension and a permanent marital partner had a significant positive impact on life satisfaction for older individuals. It has been revealed that for both sexes an important factor of life satisfaction is the employment status, while the kind of activity turned out to be not statistically significant. The family status and family composition do not have any significant impact on life satisfaction for men, but they do for women.

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Research Article Fri, 9 Oct 2020 20:08:14 +0300
Discussion on the return of “denatality” in France and its perception between 1974 and 1981 https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/55519/ Population and Economics 4(3): 33-56

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.4.e55519

Authors: Virginie De Luca Barrusse

Abstract: The article is devoted to the discussion on the decline in fertility – “denatality” (dénatalité) in France between 1974 and 1981 and society’s reaction to it. The article discusses the question: did the widely reported media debate affect public opinion or did it not go beyond discussion by a narrow range of demographics specialists? The first part shows how new trends in fertility dynamics were reflected in the press, analyses the content of 705 articles published in a newspaper with a wide range of readers. An attempt is then made to understand, based on sample surveys examining respondents’ awareness of demographic processes in France and their views on their trends, whether or not the above-mentioned discussions had had an effect on public opinion. The article shows that between 1974 and 1981 public opinion changed and preferences for changes in demographic processes prevailing in society were quite close to the position expressed in the media.

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Research Article Fri, 25 Sep 2020 17:11:41 +0300
Risks of morbidity and mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Russian regions https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/54055/ Population and Economics 4(2): 158-181

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.4.e54055

Authors: Stepan P. Zemtsov, Vyacheslav L. Baburin

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has covered all Russian regions. As of May 8, 2020, about 190 thousand cases have been identified, more than 1600 people with the corresponding diagnosis have died. The values of the indicators are expected to rise. However, the statistics of confirmed cases and deaths may underestimate their actual extent due to testing peculiarities, lagging reporting and other factors. The article identifies and describes the characteristics of the regions in which the incidence and mortality of COVID-19 is higher. Migration of potential carriers of the virus: summer workers and migrant workers from Moscow and large agglomerations, as well as return of labour migrants to the North increase the risks of the disease spread. The risk of mortality is higher in regions with high proportions of the poor and aged residents, for whom it is difficult to adapt to the pandemic, and lower in regions with greater health infrastructure. Based on the revealed patterns, a typology of regions on possible risks is proposed. Above all the risks in and near the largest agglomerations (the cities of Moscow and Saint Petersburg, Moscow and Leningrad Oblasts), in the northern regions where the share of labour migrants is high (Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs), in southern underdeveloped regions (Ingushetia, Karachay-Cherkess, Kabardino-Balkarian Republics, Dagestan, North Ossetia). For the latter, the consequences may be most significant due to the limited capacity to adapt to the pandemic and self-isolation regime, and additional support measures may be required in these regions.

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Research Article Tue, 16 Jun 2020 16:50:28 +0300
Gendered Understanding of Ebola Crisis in Sierra Leone. Lessons for COVID-19 https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/53301/ Population and Economics 4(2): 88-95

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.4.e53301

Authors: Ana Androsik

Abstract: This case study provides evidence in response to the research question: “How did males and females in the bottom of the socio-economic hierarchy i.e. rural poor, respond to the 2014/2015 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone?” This case study focuses on the following research sub-questions: • Caretaking Responsibilities: What kind of additional burdens were placed on rural men and women who took on the responsibility for orphaned children? • Income Earnings: How did market closures and restrictions on movements affect income earnings of males and females in the rural area? Based on the analysis of the Ebola crisis on rural poor men and women income and caretaking responsibilities highlighted in this case study, we can state that most women bore the costs of caretaking responsibilities. However, both women and men of Sierra Leone bore serious socio-economic costs at the level of their productive labor (income in this case study). The international community is presently dealing with the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on marginalized communities, and the outcomes are still unknown. This brief case study helps to understand the gendered outcomes of previous public health epidemics in the context of social stratification. It is likely that many international humanitarian organizations will eventually aim at building economic and social resilience of impoverished communities with the focus on specific needs of different genders. An evidence from previous public health crises on the economy can help design the most efficient program interventions.

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Research Article Mon, 18 May 2020 18:09:57 +0300
Demographic and social issues of the pandemic https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/53891/ Population and Economics 4(2): 103-122

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.4.e53891

Authors: Irina E. Kalabikhina

Abstract: The article begins with a small paragraph on why it is necessary to carefully assess operational data on morbidity and mortality from coronavirus. Further, the author discusses the complex of possible geo-spatial, demographic, socio-economic, socio-cultural and political factors of unequal impact of morbidity and overmortality from COVID-19 on various social groups and territories; hypothesize about the demographic and gender consequences of the pandemic and its accompanying economic recession in the short-term and long-term period. The author comes to the conclusion that the pandemic will have minor demographic consequences or won’t have any. And despite a number of negative effects, the pandemic offers a window of opportunity for the development of gender equality.

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Research Article Mon, 18 May 2020 17:21:36 +0300
Methods for constructing an assessment of the development of the coronavirus pandemic https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/53686/ Population and Economics 4(2): 96-102

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.4.e53686

Authors: Valeria V. Burmakina, Dmitriy V. Pomazkin, Ivan D. Prokhorov

Abstract: The article discusses the forecast of the development of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the basis of the SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) type model and official morbidity statistics.

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Research Article Mon, 18 May 2020 16:51:37 +0300
New problems of Russian families in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/53619/ Population and Economics 4(2): 81-83

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.4.e53619

Authors: Olga H. Isupova

Abstract: The note is concerned with the social and economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic for the daily life of Russian, and especially Moscow, families, especially in association with the introduction of quarantine-like restrictions as of April 2020. These consequences relate to the organization of the daily work of parents and the study of children from one and the same limited space of home or flat, with a sudden sharp change in the routines of everyday life. Also, unexpected financial problems and restrictions were added in many families, due to the lack of the opportunity to work for those employed in the service sector, which constitutes a significant segment of the Moscow economy.

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Research Note Thu, 30 Apr 2020 20:42:02 +0300
Patterns of mortality during pandemic: An example of Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/53492/ Population and Economics 4(2): 56-64

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.4.e53492

Authors: Natalia S. Gavrilova, Leonid A. Gavrilov

Abstract: Now the attention of the whole world is focused on the developing pandemic of the coronavirus infection COVID-19. This article discusses mortality patterns of the deadliest epidemic in the last 120 years – the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918. Statistical sources from Italy and the USA, published shortly after the pandemic, were analyzed. The analysis was carried out for mortality from all causes, since in this case inaccuracies associated with establishing the causes of death are minimized. Despite the fact that the first cases of the Spanish flu appeared in the United States as early as March 1918, this first wave of epidemic practically did not affect the total mortality rate. The main peak of mortality in 1918 occurred in October 1918 both in the USA and Italy, with a gradual decrease in mortality over several months. Analysis of age-specific mortality demonstrates a significant increase in mortality at middle ages (20-50 years) in 1918 compared with 1917. Analysis of mortality trends using the method of latent variables shows a significant increase in the background mortality factor in 1918, which turned out to be higher for Italy than the mortality losses during the Second World War. The Spanish flu pandemic differs from the current coronavirus pandemic, because of significant increase in mortality of middle-aged people, while the COVID-19 pandemic causes a more marked increase in mortality among the elderly. With this, the COVID-19 pandemic is more like the recent flu epidemics than the earlier Spanish flu pandemic.

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Research Article Thu, 30 Apr 2020 18:49:07 +0300
Lessons from the ongoing crisis for labour market institutions in Russia https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/53552/ Population and Economics 4(2): 65-71

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.4.e53552

Authors: Irina A. Denisova

Abstract: The paper discusses the role of unemployment insurance system in economic development in general and in the context of the ongoing crisis due to the forced lockdown related to COVID-19. The key elements of employment subsidy programs with reduced working hours or partial unemployment benefits, based on the experience of OECD countries get special attention.

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Research Article Thu, 30 Apr 2020 13:25:43 +0300
Coronavirus pandemic challenges migrants worldwide and in Russia https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/53201/ Population and Economics 4(2): 49-55

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.4.e53201

Authors: Irina Ivakhnyuk

Abstract: The paper deals with the situation of one of the most vulnerable social groups under COVID-19, namely migrants and refugees. The author classifies pandemic-related challenges faced by migrants into several groups: (1) economic, (2) medical, or sanitary-epidemiological, (3) socio-psychological, and (4) political. Special attention is paid to the situation in Russia, which largely coincides with what is happening in other countries with numerous numbers of migrants, and at the same time has its own specificity.

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Research Article Thu, 23 Apr 2020 18:41:33 +0300
What after? Essays on the expected consequences of the COVID-19 pandemics on the global and Russian economics and population https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/53337/ Population and Economics 4(2): 1-3

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.4.e53337

Authors: Irina E. Kalabikhina

Abstract: Letter from the editor-in-chief of the “Population and Economics” journal about the special issue

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Foreword Wed, 22 Apr 2020 20:00:01 +0300
Poverty in the Russian Federation: possibilities and specifics of the use of the AROPE multi-criteria index in the poverty monitoring system of the Russian Federation https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/50836/ Population and Economics 4(1): 1-19

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.4.e50836

Authors: Marina A. Kartseva

Abstract: The article presents a comparative analysis of the level and structure of poverty of the Russian population using two different concepts of poverty definition — the absolute income criterion currently used by Rosstat, and the AROPE indicator of poverty and social exclusion. The paper also attempts to assess how the change of the methodology for determining poverty can affect the existence of the poverty status of individuals. The study is carried out both at a national level and at a federal district level. The empirical basis of the paper is selective observation of income of the population and participation in social programmes, conducted by Rosstat in 2017. The results show that in transition from the absolute income criterion to the multi-criteria AROPE index, the poverty level of the population of the Russian Federation significantly increases. The highest growth of poverty is among people over working age. The age structure of poverty also changes significantly. With AROPE, the proportion of older persons among the poor increases and the proportion of children decreases. It is also shown in the article that the transition from the current official methodology of poverty definition to the definition in accordance with AROPE’s methodology can lead to loss of the poverty status by part of the population, which, in case of the official transition to using AROPE index as a criterion for receiving social support, can have a negative impact on their socio-economic situation. The obtained results vary significantly by federal districts of the Russian Federation.

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Research Article Tue, 31 Mar 2020 16:35:49 +0300
Towards gender equality in the labour markets of Canada, USA and Russia: an overview of progress in achievement of international commitments https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/50338/ Population and Economics 4(1): 38-50

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.4.e50338

Authors: Maria Yu. Beletskaya, Elena A. Zotova

Abstract: In 2019, the International Labour Organization (ILO), together with the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), prepared and presented to the G20 leaders a report entitled “Women at work in G20 countries: Progress and policy action”. According to the report, Canada, the United States and Russia show the lowest results among the G20 countries in reaching the goal of reducing the gender gap in labour force participation by 25 percent by 2025. This is largely due to the relatively high levels of gender equality that have already been achieved in these countries. The article analyzes the policy of Canada, the USA and Russia towards women at work in four directions: 1) measures taken by national Governments, in cooperation with social partners, to increase women’s participation in the labour force and to overcome cultural and behavioural barriers to the employment of women; 2) measures to increase women’s ability to earn decent wages, including through lifelong learning, upgrading qualifications and skills development; 3) measures to reduce the proportion of women employed in the informal sector and in low-paid jobs; 4) measures to protect women in labour market in order to encourage men and women to combine work and family and share family responsibilities equitably.

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Research Article Tue, 31 Mar 2020 14:16:40 +0300
Factors of fertility ageing rate https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/53039/ Population and Economics 4(1): 60-74

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.4.e53039

Authors: Nelly S. Smulyanskaya

Abstract: The current demographic model of most developed countries is characterized by ageing and declining fertility. Despite the fact that this topic has been studied quite thoroughly, the question remains: what national indicators does the rate of ageing fertility depend on in different groups of countries? An analysis of some developed countries between 1990 and 2017 enables concluding that the dynamics of intensity of the first births over the age of 35 in the group of developed countries is negatively influenced by the dynamics of employment and the share of services in GDP, while the maternal age at first birth in the group of former socialist countries depends on the dynamics of the education indicator.

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Research Article Tue, 31 Mar 2020 12:48:35 +0300
Dynamics of modal age at death in 1959−2014 in Russia https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/49651/ Population and Economics 3(4): 86-96

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.3.e49651

Authors: Mikhail A. Maksimov

Abstract: Abstract The aim of this paper is to determine the trends of the main indicators of life expectancy in Russia in the 1950s to 2000s. For this purpose, life tables for Russia (former — RSFSR) from 1959 to 2014 for one-year age intervals were analyzed. The main indicators under review are the modal age at death and the standard deviation of life expectancy from the modal value for all ages and the mode. As a result, it is concluded that in Russia the modal age at death and the indicator of life expectancy have stagnated over the past 60 years, and definite trends can be traced only in short periods of time, namely after 2009 when all basic life expectancy indicators were steadily increasing. Life expectancy is far behind those of the developed countries by about half a century.

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Research Article Mon, 30 Dec 2019 10:01:06 +0200
On the third annual conference of the Consortium of Journals of the Faculty of Economics of the Lomonosov Moscow State University: sections “Population Economics and Demography” and “Man and Labour” https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/47343/ Population and Economics 3(4): 97-100

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.3.e47343

Authors: Irina E. Kalabikhina, Tatiana O. Razumova

Abstract: n/a

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News Mon, 30 Dec 2019 09:58:06 +0200
Migration intentions of graduate students of medical universities in Russia and some CIS countries https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/49754/ Population and Economics 3(4): 65-85

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.3.e49754

Authors: Valeriia G. Oksinenko

Abstract: Abstract The shortage of young medical workers in Russia is a long-standing and acute problem; its solution, even in part, is impossible without taking into account a whole set of factors. An empirical analysis of the results of the survey of graduates of medical and non-medical specializations in Russia and CIS countries gives grounds to identify graduates of medical faculties as a homogeneous group, which has similar migration patterns and relatively low variance in the impact of various factors on these patterns. When making decision about migration for employment graduates of medical specialties are less susceptible to the imbalance in the development of regions of Russia, but more sensitive to social factors. The findings of the paper confirm the importance of ongoing efforts in the field of social and economic policy keeping in mind its potential effectiveness to retain medical workers in regions of Russia.

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Research Article Mon, 30 Dec 2019 09:58:04 +0200
Marriage in Ingushetia: intergenerational changes and their possible causes https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/49763/ Population and Economics 3(4): 45-64

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.3.e49763

Authors: Konstantin Kazenin

Abstract: The article deals with marriage of women of different birth cohorts in Ingushetia in the post-Soviet period. The results of the quantitative survey of women aged 16–44 years in the Republic of Ingushetia in 2019 are analyzed. The analysis is based on proportional risk models, as well as logistic regressions for the probability to enter first marriage for a woman at different ages. The analysis showed that among women in Ingushetia whose marriageable and reproductive age was during 1990s–2010s the probability of marriage (both during the entire reproductive period and by specific ages) is higher for younger generations. This trend is not consistent with the all-Russian pattern. Various explanations of the dynamics of marriage in Ingushetia are presented. The author argues that the rise of marriage rates in this republic followed the stabilization of the political and social situation after the armed confrontation in the neighboring Republic of Chechnya was put to the end.

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Research Article Mon, 30 Dec 2019 09:58:01 +0200
Target regional size and structure of the population of the Russian Federation: possibilities to identify and achieve https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/49666/ Population and Economics 3(4): 30-44

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.3.e49666

Authors: Ekaterina A. Edinak, Andrey G. Korovkin, Ivan B. Korolev

Abstract: Abstract The article proposes a solution of the task of achieving the target regional population size and structure, which would be sustainable in the long term, by means of managing its movement. The significance of this task is justified by the growing concentration of population and labour in a few number of Russia’s regions in the current and projected periods, primarily due to migration processes. The apparatus of matrix equations is used to shape the conditions for reaching the target size and structure of the population. The article presents the estimates of the equilibrium population of the Russian Federation and the possibilities of reaching the target population size in prospect. The demographic forecast of Rosstat up to 2035 in three variants is considered as a target. For each of variants, the required increase of population via birth and immigration is calculated. The possibilities to assess the need in population inflow and to achieve the target population size by using the methodology proposed in the article are shown by the case of the Far Eastern Federal District. It is argued that nowadays a crucial element of social and economic policy in the regions should be creation of new jobs with higher labour productivity and therefore, reduction of the need for foreign labour migrants in the Russian labour market.

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Research Article Mon, 30 Dec 2019 09:57:58 +0200
Perception of population ageing and age discrimination across EU countries https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/49760/ Population and Economics 3(4): 1-29

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.3.e49760

Authors: Jitka Rychtaříková

Abstract: Population ageing is the most dominant demographic challenge that the European Union is experiencing in the 21st century. This may create negative attitudes and lead to discrimination against persons of advanced age. Age-related stereotypes and prejudice can result in age discrimination, termed ageism. This research concerns the question of perceived ageism towards older people in 25 EU countries, surveyed in 2015 using the Special Eurobarometer 437. The analytical section includes descriptive findings and the results of three multi-level regression models addressing three domains (explained variables) of perceived ageism: 1) discrimination in general, 2) discrimination during economic crisis, and 3) discrimination when electing an older person as a high official. The two-level regression allowed simultaneous modelling of individual-level (gender, age, partnership status, social class, and life satisfaction) and of country-level (life expectancy at 55, perceived start of old age, and HDI) effects. The personal characteristics impacted much stronger perceived ageism than country contexts. Ageist perception in general has mostly been noted at pre-retirement age, but the age profile has not been the same across three regression models. The East-West gradient, frequently reported, is questioned because the geographical picture of perceived ageism is rather puzzling.

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Research Article Mon, 30 Dec 2019 09:57:22 +0200
How the population of the Republic of Azerbaijan is ageing: causes and potential for social and economic development https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/47233/ Population and Economics 3(3): 23-42

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.3.e47233

Authors: Nailya Verdiyeva

Abstract: The article deals with the trends of population ageing in the Republic of Azerbaijan. The author considers the stages of change in population size and age structure in the 20th and the 21st centuries as a result of historical evolution of birth rate and death rate. Based on the analysis of fertility trends and life expectancy, it is shown that the decline in fertility has so far been the most important factor in the population ageing, whereas the decline in the mortality in older ages is only beginning to contribute to this process. It is emphasized that anomalies in the sex ratio at birth lead to accelerated ageing of the population. The gradual ageing and reduction of the share of the working-age population, as well as the growth of the dependency ratio and the exhaustion of the potential of the first demographic dividend, are also analysed in the paper.

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Research Article Mon, 30 Sep 2019 17:10:14 +0300
Age structure of the population of Moscow and St. Petersburg: yesterday, today, and tomorrow https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/47234/ Population and Economics 3(3): 23-42

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.3.e47234

Authors: Gayane L. Safarova, Anna A. Safarova

Abstract: The article analyzes the dynamics of the aggregate age structure of the population of Moscow and St. Petersburg between 1990 and 2015, as well as in the long term up to 2045 in accordance with a number of scenarios of changes in the indicators of major demographic processes. Besides, the population pyramids of St. Petersburg and Moscow according to the following population censuses are considered: the First Census of Population of the Russian Empire of 1897, the All-Union population censuses of 1926, 1939, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989, the All-Russian population censuses of 2002 and 2010, and a quantitative evaluation of their similarities and differences is given.

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Research Article Mon, 30 Sep 2019 16:38:34 +0300
Demographic transition and “demographic security” in post-Soviet countries https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/47236/ Population and Economics 3(3): 1-22

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.3.e47236

Authors: Alexandre Sidorenko

Abstract: The review-and-analytical article deals with the interrelation between demographic transition and national security. The focus is on the countries of the former Soviet Union. It proves that along with two traditional approaches of population policy, i.e. prevention and overcoming of negative consequences of demographic transition, measures of adjustment to demographic change are acquiring increasing importance.

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Research Article Mon, 30 Sep 2019 16:17:09 +0300
Analysis of life satisfaction of the elderly population on the example of Sweden, Austria and Germany https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/47192/ Population and Economics 3(3): 102-116

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.3.e47192

Authors: Rosa Zh. Kutubaeva

Abstract: Under the conditions of population ageing, particular interest is paid to the study of life satisfaction in older ages. The purpose of the article is to assess the level of life satisfaction of the population in old age. The main method is econometric modelling using individual data from the Study of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). According to the results of the study, ageing itself does not necessarily worsen one’s perception of life - there is no evidence from Austria and Spain that all people systematically, regardless of the year of birth, go through a stage of a lower level of life satisfaction. An important factor of life satisfaction is health self-assessment.

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Research Article Mon, 30 Sep 2019 11:00:32 +0300
Adaptation of an exhibition event for the target audience of older ages https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/47235/ Population and Economics 3(3): 74-101

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.3.e47235

Authors: Marina Y. Sheresheva, Ksenia T. Yakovleva

Abstract: The group of older consumers is gradually increasing in the structure of the world consumer market. The companies that have discerned the huge potential in this segment often achieve better results and in some cases become market leaders. It proves that in order to achieve sustainable competitiveness it is necessary to study the category of aged consumers in-depth, to realize their characteristics and the mechanisms of formation of their perception. One of the important tools for achieving this goal are exhibitions, which not only provide an opportunity to build marketing communication with target audiences, but also allow to evaluate, form and correct their perceptions. This paper deals with the approaches to adaptation of an exhibition event for the target audience of older ages. The methodology of empirical research included qualitative and quantitative research, involving the participant observation method within the preparation of the “50 PLUS” International Forum and Exhibition.

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Research Article Mon, 30 Sep 2019 09:19:00 +0300
Population development trends in Russia and China in the 21st century https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/37961/ Population and Economics 3(2): 45-64

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.3.e37961

Authors: Aleksandra V. Korolenko

Abstract: Currently, Russia and China are in an intermediate position between rich developed countries with declining indigenous populations and poor developing countries with a relatively fast-growing population. However, if China is the world leader in population size (1.38 billion people), Russia, with its much larger territory, has almost ten times less population (144.3 million). However, according to the UN forecasts both countries are facing the same challenge in the 21st century: it is a significant reduction in population size, which necessitates the identification of the prerequisites, causes and effects of the upcoming demographic transformations. This fact determined the purpose of this article – analysis of the population development in Russia and China in the first decades of the 21st century, identification of its differences and general trends. The research was based on statistics from the United Nations, the World Bank and the World Health Organization. The author analyzes the dynamics of population size, age structure, gender ratio, natural movement (fertility and mortality), life expectancy and mortality rate structure. Trends of population development both common for two countries and specific for each of them, were identified; according to the author, they should be taken into account in shaping responds to demographic challenges and in elaborating mechanisms for managing demographic processes.

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Research Article Sun, 30 Jun 2019 17:47:55 +0300
Will China’s “Two-child in One Family” Policy to Spur Population Growth Work? https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/37962/ Population and Economics 3(2): 36-44

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.3.e37962

Authors: Fang Lieming

Abstract: The population problem has always been a fundamental, overall and strategic issue faced by the human society. While China’s family planning policy has promoted China’s economic development and social progress, the “two-child” policy failed to receive satisfactory result. Confronted by China’s low fertility rate, efforts must be done from many aspects to spur population growth: establish the National Population Security Council, strengthen the selection and appointment of population policy makers, strengthen the family values, adopt incentive measures to increase fertility, and so on. The “two-child” policy has been carried out for more than three years, and the policy is still facing the test of time. China’s “two-child” policy is still a transitional policy, and the final solution will be to abandon birth control.

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Research Article Sun, 30 Jun 2019 17:47:38 +0300
Low fertility trend in the Republic of Korea and the problems of its family and demographic policy implementation https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/37938/ Population and Economics 3(2): 29-35

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.3.e37938

Authors: Seung Hyun Seo

Abstract: The article analyzes the population trends and the family and demographic policy in the contemporary Republic of Korea. The main emphasis is made on the analysis of low birth rate in the country. Until the end of the 20th century, the two-child family model prevailed in South Korea, however, in the last decade birth and marriage rates have become among the lowest in the world. Why has fertility fallen so dramatically far below replacement level? The article discusses the causes of fertility decline, as well as the social factors that contribute to and hinder the implementation of state measures to stimulate and increase the birth rate in the Republic of Korea. In particular, the social and gender aspects of solving the problem of low fertility are analyzed.

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Research Article Sun, 30 Jun 2019 17:47:15 +0300
Dynamics of life expectancy in Russia over the last half century and prospects of reaching the 80+ level by 2030 https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/37964/ Population and Economics 3(2): 22-28

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.3.e37964

Authors: Dmitry V. Pomazkin

Abstract: The article analyzes the possibility of achieving life expectancy of 80 years by 2030 on the basis of actual data on life expectancy in the Russian Federation during the last 50 years and changes in age-specific death rates.

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Research Article Sun, 30 Jun 2019 17:46:53 +0300
Assessments of the effects of permanent internal migration in the Russian literature at the late 19th and early 20th centuries https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/37973/ Population and Economics 3(2): 10-21

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.3.e37973

Authors: Valentina M. Moiseenko

Abstract: In the context of the agrarian crisis in Russia (USSR) in the second half of the 19th and the first third of the 20th century, much attention in the socio-political literature was paid to the migration of peasants to the extensive undeveloped areas, mainly to the east of the Ural mountains. The changing characteristics of migration and migration policies during this period have resulted in a variety of methods for assessing the effects of migration. The experience of the second half of the 19th and the first third of the 20th century is interesting not only in the dynamics of assessment of the effects, but also in the logical conclusion of the study of this problem. It is known that even today the effects of migration remain a complex and largely unsolved research task.

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Research Article Sun, 30 Jun 2019 17:46:25 +0300
Reflections on demographic theories https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/37965/ Population and Economics 3(2): 1-9

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.3.e37965

Authors: Evgeny M. Andreev

Abstract: Abstract The article presents the author’s reflections on theories in general and demographic theories in particular. The epidemiological transition, i.e. periodization of changes in the structure of causes of death, proposed by A.R. Omran in 1971 and later raised to the rank of theory, is taken as an example. The author points out the insufficiency of Omran’s concept to explain the contemporary mortality trends and suggests possible directions of theorizing that would enable correlating the new stage of life expectancy growth with the notion of “epidemiological transition”.

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Research Article Sun, 30 Jun 2019 17:45:25 +0300
Development and current state of urban labour markets in Russia https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/34768/ Population and Economics 3(1): 75-90

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.3.e34768

Authors: Evgeny V. Antonov

Abstract: The purpose of the study is to identify key trends in the development of labour markets in the cities of Russia in the post-Soviet period and their current state. The parameters of sectoral employment of the population and the number of employees in urban districts of Russia in the period after 2010 are analyzed in detail. For the first time the state of the labour market of all cities of the country in a full range of organizations is investigated on the basis of data of the Federal Tax Service (FTS). The study confirms the existence of differences in the level of employment in cities of different size in different regions of the country, as well as the existence of an urban—rural and center—periphery (regional center — the rest of the region) gradient.

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Research Article Fri, 12 Apr 2019 15:15:00 +0300
Migration in rural areas of Russia: territorial differences https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/34780/ Population and Economics 3(1): 39-51

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.3.e34780

Authors: Nikita V. Mkrtchyan

Abstract: Abstract The article analyzes indicators of intensity of migration growth of municipal formations of the rank of district or urban district with completely rural or predominantly rural population. Rural areas in the suburbs of regional capitals and intraregional periphery, as well as those located in the South, the Non-Chernozem region, the South of Siberia and the Far East, the territories of the Far North and its equivalent areas, are considered separately. Both general indicators of the intensity of migration population growth (decline) and by 5-year age groups are compared. The source was data on long-term migration for 2012-2016, published in the Indicators of Municipal Entities databases of Rosstat. The analysis showed that suburban/peripheral differences in the migration balance of rural areas are more pronounced than spatial-geographical (zonal). Age profiles of migratory growth (loss) by geographical zones are similar, but differ in intensity — in the north and east outflow is higher. Suburban and peripheral rural areas in terms of intensity of migration balance differ fundamentally: the most intense migratory growth in all ages except for the youngest is noted in the suburbs.

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Research Article Fri, 12 Apr 2019 15:15:00 +0300
Shifts in interregional proportions in population settlement over the territory of Russia in 2002–2017 https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/34905/ Population and Economics 3(1): 21-37

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.3.e34905

Authors: Pavel L. Kirillov, Alla G. Makhrova

Abstract: Abstract The article deals with the trends of population size changes in the regions of the Russian Federation between 2002 and 2017 on the basis of data of all-Russian population censuses and current statistics. Components of population growth (natural and migratory movement of the population) are analyzed. In order to take into account the current situation of population size changes in the regions, which are largely of a “turning point” nature and partly inconsistent with the medium-term dynamics since the 2002 Census, the analysis is focused on the period from 2014 to 2017. The paper presents estimates of population size shifts at regional and macro-regional levels, identifies general and local growth centers and depopulation zones. Conclusions are drawn about general shifts in the proportions of population settlement over the territory of Russia and in certain macro-regions (federal districts). General conclusions about the trends of population redistribution across the territory of the country are given in the final part of the study.

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Research Article Fri, 12 Apr 2019 15:15:00 +0300
About the issue of the “Population and Economics” devoted to interaction of population and the economy in geographical space https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/34779/ Population and Economics 3(1): 1-3

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.e34779

Authors: Tatyana G. Nefedova

Abstract: This issue was prepared mainly by geographers. Almost all of the articles are one way or another devoted to the role of space in the development of society, or rather, a wide range of relations between the population and the economy through space.

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Foreword Fri, 12 Apr 2019 15:15:00 +0300